ACTUAL PROBLEMS DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMICS
Aim. To identify the prospects and possible areas of data science use in the decision-making process in the management of social and economic systems.
Objectives. To analyze existing approaches and promising directions of data science use; to analyze methods that allow to obtain real-time data for decision-making, to identify gaps and shortcomings; to briefly formulate conclusions relevant for practitioners and policy makers in the process of decision-making based on data science.
Methodology. The authors analyzed the scientific literature, applied methods of logical analysis and interpretation of data.
Results. In the course of the research, it was found that data science makes a significant contribution to the global transformation of society, allowing solving urgent problems of socioeconomic development. Methods that facilitate the acquisition of real-time data increase the effectiveness of decisions in the management of social and economic systems. These methods were analyzed, their advantages and disadvantages were identified, and examples of their use were presented. The key data requirements were defined: confidentiality, ethics, and security. A range of new questions for future research in the context of the topic under consideration was proposed.
Conclusions. The results obtained contribute to the theoretical development of new approaches to the application of data science, as well as the practical use of best practices in cases of decision-making in the management of social and economic systems. These results can form the basis for the design and implementation of solutions by policy makers and practitioners.
ECONOMIC THEORY
Aim. To build and substantiate the author’s methodology for assessing the development of human-centered economy. In view of the insufficiency of theoretical and empirical research in the field of formation and development of economy for human beings, the demand for this scientific research is actualized in order to better meet human needs.
Objectives. To develop a methodology for assessing the development of human-centered economy; to test it on the example of the Russian Federation (RF), including Russian regions.
Methodology. The methodological basis of the study was formed by the provisions of the theory of human-centered economy. The methods used include normalization, linear scaling, and “series of information criteria” methods. Visualization of the obtained results was carried out on the basis of spatial modeling software package GeoDA. The information base was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Culture of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Sports of the Russian Federation, Rospatent for 2018-2022.
Results. The methodology for calculating the integral index of human-centered economy development has been developed. It was calculated by integrating 87 specific indices and eight subindices. The process of research revealed that this economic system is at the initial stages of development with isogressive-regressive trajectory, has insignificantly developed constituent components in the form of creative and cognitive spheres.
Conclusions. The proposed methodology provides a basis for further scientific research in similar studies, as well as for the formation of targeted measures to support the challenging spheres of human activity and human-centered economy as a whole.
WORLD ECONOMY
Aim. To study the nature of the impact of migration on economic growth depending on the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the direction of migration flows.
Objectives. Study of theoretical approaches to the research of the impact of labor migration on economic growth; analysis of factors that differentiate the assessment of the impact of migration flows on economic growth indicators; collection and analysis of statistical information for the development of econometric models for assessing the impact of migration on economic growth.
Methods. The authors used general scientific methods of research, such as deduction, analysis, synthesis. Statistical methods of data analysis were applied, linear regression models were built.
Results. The research shows that the impact of migration on economic growth in countries with different levels of GDP per capita is due to different factors. For developed economies, the positive factors of the impact of immigration on economic growth are replenishment of scarce labor resources; improvement of labor force quality due to structural changes caused by the transition of the permanent working-age population to new professional fields. For countries with a low level of GDP per capita we can identify a number of positive factors of the impact of emigration (with a negative balance of migration growth) on economic growth. In particular, the outflow of excess labor force creates conditions for reducing unemployment; remittances of migrants support effective demand in the consumer market, contribute to the development of the banking system and investment in the country of origin; the expansion of social ties leads to the development of human capital, increasing the potential for innovation.
Conclusions. The value of correlation coefficients in the constructed regression models indicates that there is a weak correlation between the variable characterizing the volume and nature of migration in the country (the ratio of migration balance to population) and the variable characterizing economic growth (GDP per capita at purchasing power parity) only for the group of high-income countries. There is little statistical dependence of these variables for other groups of countries. With regard to econometric modeling of the impact of migration on economic growth, this means that it is necessary to develop separate models for each group of countries depending on the level of GDP per capita and the direction of migration flows.
Aim. To identify specific features of production and use of transportation biofuels in selected developing countries, as well as to assess the potential of bioethanol industry development in the Russian Federation (RF).
Objectives. To assess the economic efficiency of bioethanol production in Russia; to reveal the potential of applying foreign experience in the development of bioethanol industry in our country.
Methods. In the process of the research the methods of system analysis, comparative analysis, method of expert evaluations, mathematical, statistical methods were applied.
Results. The actual estimation of economic efficiency of bioethanol production in Russia was obtained. The cost of a unit of bioethanol, which is equivalent to a liter of gasoline in terms of energy content, is 5-36% higher than the cost of a liter of gasoline (depending on the production technology). At the same time, state support for the production and use of bioethanol in our country is reasonable. This will allow to create additional demand for grain crops and reduce carbon dioxide emissions from motor transport. The production and use of bioethanol will form an additional supply in the gasoline market, will give an opportunity to support projects on deep processing of grain and wood chemistry.
Conclusions. The experience of Brazil, China and Indonesia in the development of bioethanol industry is relevant for Russia. At the same time, in order to minimize possible risks in the field of food security at the initial stage of bioethanol industry development, low-quality grain stocks should be used as feedstock and the production of second-generation bioethanol should be stimulated.
Aim. To assess the impact of Western European sanctions on Russian-Croatian trade relations in 2020-2023 and Croatian tourism sector.
Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of key indicators of trade between the Russian Federation (RF) and Croatia under sanctions; to identify the main commodity groups in the structure of their trade; to determine the importance of Russia for the tourism sector of the Republic of Croatia.
Methods. The author used such research methods as statistical analysis, generalization, description and graphical modeling.
Results. The results obtained in the process of the analysis indicate a sharp decline in the volume of mutual trade of the Russian Federation with Croatia in the conditions of numerous trade restrictions from the European Union. In 2023, the commodity structure of Russian exports to the Republic of Croatia has changed significantly, the basis of Russian exports is now made up of finished goods and goods of the chemical industry. The flow of tourists from Russia occupies an insignificant share in the total tourist flow of Croatia and has little impact on the tourism sector of the Republic. Under the conditions of the sanctions regime, Croatian companies have begun to cease economic activities in the territory of the Russian Federation.
Conclusions. The current situation on the world stage has determined the dynamism of mutual trade interaction between Russia and Croatia. Thus, the sanctions imposed by the countries of the collective West have a negative impact on Russian-Croatian relations both in trade and tourism. The tendencies of reduction of mutual trade and tourist flows have a long-term character and negative dynamics of interaction between the two countries. Normalization of trade relations between Russia and Croatia in the geopolitical situation today seems unlikely.
REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ECONOMY
Aim. To evaluate the impact of investments in mineral extraction on the economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai using the dynamics of data for 2004–2021.
Objectives. To prepare initial data for modeling in comparable prices; to build statistical models with a time lag; to determine the multiplier and gas pedal coefficients of investment; to demonstrate the possibilities of applying the obtained dependencies.
Methods. The authors used the method of economic and mathematical modeling, in particular the calculation of socio-economic indicators using mathematical statistics. The regression model was built using the initial data that meet the requirements of comparability and homogeneity, are relevant and statistically reliable.
Results. Dependencies reflecting the investment multiplier effect, i.e. the increase in the gross regional product (GRP) and the volume of shipped products in response to the increase in investment in mining were obtained. Dependencies reflecting the investment gas pedal effect are also obtained, showing how increased income affects the size of investment. The dependencies are applied to solve a number of practical problems.
Conclusions. It has been established that investments in mining in Krasnoyarsk Krai have an impact on the growth of GRP and the volume of shipped products. The return on investment has a temporary character. The strongest impact of investments in the current year have on the growth of GRP and shipped products for the next year. The multiplier coefficient is 2.72. Increased income affects the size of investments: the growth of income from mining stimulates the growth of induced investments in the following year with the multiplier coefficient, which is equal to 0.14. The comparison of actual values of investments in mineral resources extraction and volume of shipped products with the target values laid down in the Strategy of socioeconomic development of the region until 2030 has been carried out. The target values, according to the Strategy, are determined with the help of the obtained dependencies. It was established that the actual volume of investments is sufficient to ensure the GRP growth in accordance with the Strategy at the first stage; to ensure growth at the second stage it is necessary to increase investments by 12–15 % annually; to ensure growth at the third stage it is necessary to increase investments by 9–13 % annually from the current state. In order to ensure the values of indicators on the volume of production provided for in the Strategy, it is necessary to increase output by 4–6 % annually compared to 2021.
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
Aim. To investigate the importance of technological sovereignty for strengthening the competitive positions of Russian oil and gas companies.
Objectives. To identify the key factors that determine the level of technological independence of oil and gas companies; to assess how these factors affect their ability to compete successfully at the national and international levels.
Methodology. The research uses general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis using a systematic approach.
Results. The essence of technological independence as a factor in the development of competitiveness of companies in the oil and gas sector was analyzed. The assumption is formulated that the achievement of technological sovereignty allows companies to mitigate risks arising from external factors, including international sanctions and restrictions on access to advanced foreign technologies. Several strategic initiatives have been proposed to strengthen the technological sovereignty of the domestic oil and gas industry: training of highly qualified personnel, introduction of tax incentives and subsidies from the state for companies, creation of special economic zones or technology parks, protection of intellectual property and support for patent activity.
Conclusions. Technological independence is the most effective method in the context of the struggle of Russian industrial companies against external challenges: sanctions and changes in global energy markets. The development of national technologies in the oil and gas sector due to the synergetic effect has a positive impact on strengthening the competitive advantages of Russian national companies in both domestic and international markets. In order to ensure technological sovereignty, special attention should be paid to the development of strategic risk management mechanisms, as well as effective communication models between the state, industry, and science.
FINANCES AND CREDIT
Aim. To identify the ways to improve the observance of the principle of unity in the process of formation of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation (RF) on the basis of the analysis of the revenue part of the regional budget of the Chechen Republic.
Objectives. To identify problems related to the observance of the principle of unity in the process of forming the budget system of the Russian Federation; to reveal the problem of the so-called chronic income insufficiency in regional and local budgets; to provide evidence of the effectiveness or inefficiency of the current mechanism of inter-institutional financial relations in Russia on the example of the Chechen Republic.
Methodology. In the course of the research, the authors used general scientific methods and a number of special ones, including statistical and economic analysis, economic-mathematical and abstract-logical methods, as well as the method of graphical representation of information.
Results. The idea is substantiated that the principle of independence of regional budgets should not contradict the principle of unity of the country’s budget system. It is proposed to develop a budget financing mechanism that takes into account not only the difference in providing the region with financial resources for independent development, but also the opportunity to give the funds allocated from the state budget an investment character.
Conclusions. The article defines the directions for improving the mechanism while respecting the principle of unity in the process of forming the budget system of the Russian Federation. The country’s budget system should become one of the main sources of investment in the economy of the country and regions.
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH OF YOUNG SCIENTISTS
Aim. To evaluate the potential of generative artificial intelligence technology in the context of supply chain management.
Objectives. To analyze how artificial intelligence is changing traditional management practices and structures in supply chain management; to identify fundamental shifts brought about by AI, including automation, data-driven decision making, and human empowerment; to examine current statistics on the effectiveness of artificial intelligence in management processes and conclude the potential, promise of this technology in the logistics industry; to provide strategic insight and practical
Methods. The research combines qualitative and quantitative methods to provide a deeper understanding of the problems considered. Based on these methods, an array of relevant statistical data and expert opinions in the field of generative artificial intelligence has been studied.
Results. In today’s business environment, supply chains face a number of challenges: globalization, market volatility, changing customer expectations, and force majeure (natural disasters, pandemics, or wars). To meet these challenges and strengthen their market position, companies are increasingly turning to new technologies and innovations. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize the approach to supply chain management, increasing transparency, efficiency and responsiveness. All emerging technologies, from artificial intelligence and blockchain to the Internet of Things (IoT) and robotics, potentially offer opportunities to streamline operations, improve decision-making, and enhance supply chain collaboration.
Conclusions. In this article, the authors have shown how artificial intelligence is changing traditional governance structures in supply chain management. Current statistical data on the effectiveness of artificial intelligence in management processes are analyzed, and a conclusion is made about the potential and prospects of this technology in the logistics sphere. Strategic understanding is formed and practical recommendations for organizations seeking to implement new tools of generative artificial intelligence are given.
Aim. To investigate the essence of the real sector of the Russian economy and identify the features of its impact on achieving economic security under sanctions.
Objectives. To determine the essence of the real sector of the economy and assess its contribution to the stability of the national economy under sanctions; to identify the stages of development of the real sector of the Russian economy; to form an approach to regulating the real sector in the context of achieving economic security.
Methodology. The research uses methods of comparative, structural, functional, and historical (retrospective) analysis, as well as tools of systemic and institutional approaches.
Results. The real sector of the economy includes the production of goods and services, its functioning is associated with the creation of new value. This distinguishes it from the virtual and financial sectors where real, tangible goods are not created and where, in fact, the product formed in the real sector is redistributed. In crisis conditions, the developed real sector serves as the basis for the functioning of the economy and the satisfaction of basic economic needs, its stability determines national economic security.
Conclusions. In modern conditions, characterized by sanctions pressure on Russia from unfriendly countries, the real sector of the economy plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the country’s economy as a whole. Its dynamics largely determines protection against traditional and new (sanctions-related) threats and risks to economic security. At the same time, there is a need for government support and regulation of the development of the real sector, which is associated with many different difficulties. To increase the effectiveness of this regulation, a permanent search for a balance between the use of planned and market instruments is required, the development of a mixed system of economic regulation that combines the tools of market and planned approaches. This will make it possible for the state to flexibly and adaptively manage the process of ensuring national economic security.
Aim. Development of an algorithm for managing innovative projects of knowledge-intensive organizations based on project typing and assessment of the level of management effectiveness.
Objectives. To determine the features of innovation project management of Russian knowledge-intensive organizations; to develop a system of indicators; to form an integral indicator of the level of efficiency of innovation project management; to provide recommendations on the application of tools for different types of innovation projects of knowledge-intensive organizations.
Methodology. The research uses the following scientific methods: analysis of Russian and foreign sources, expert survey, methods of systematization and generalization. To solve the multicriteria problem, the author applied E. Harrington’s desirability function. The scientific and technological chain concentration index is calculated on the basis of the mathematical apparatus proposed by A. O. Hirschman and O. K. Herfindahl.
Results. The author has developed an algorithm of innovation project management, adapted to the needs of knowledge-intensive organizations and distinguished by the availability of tools for implementing each stage of the algorithm. When applied in practice, this approach will simplify the use of development, increase the efficiency of innovative project management and the attractiveness of developments in the knowledge-intensive sector of the economy.
Conclusions. The implementation of an algorithm for managing innovation projects of knowledge-intensive organizations provides valuable insights into the need for optimization in resource allocation depending on the project context. Organizations will be able to effectively overcome the difficulties of transformation and create the basis for the continuous implementation of innovative projects, relying on their own knowledge base about management.
Aim. Comparative analysis of the progress of achieving sustainable development by Maghreb countries (among them Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania) according to the indices developed by international organizations and scientific institutions, as well as ranking the countries according to the level of sustainable development in the region.
Objectives. To analyze the regulatory framework governing sustainable development in the Maghreb countries; to assess the level of sustainable development of the countries under consideration according to international environmental, social and economic indices in 2018–2023; to apply a universal methodology for assessing sustainable development based on basic statistical data of each country; to identify common achievements and unique challenges faced by countries in the process of implementing sustainable development programs.
Methods. The analysis is based on the comparison of statistical data, publications and reports of international organizations on the success of the implementation of sustainable development programs in the Maghreb countries. Comparative and analytical approaches to assessing the level of sustainable development were applied, and attention was paid to factors affecting successes and obstacles to achieving sustainable development.
Results. Maghreb countries are at different levels of sustainable development. The article traces the differences in the countries’ strategies for implementing national sustainable development programs. The analysis of the level of sustainable development in Maghreb countries showed that Morocco has the highest position. Libya has the lowest level of sustainable development. The poverty rate in the region is decreasing, although in Libya, it remains high. Countries are showing progress in renewable energy development, with Morocco in particular implementing solar energy programs. Despite the successes, the countries face significant challenges. Inequality in access to resources and income, along with high unemployment, especially among youth, remains a pressing problem in the region. Political instability in Libya, non-cooperation between Morocco and Algeria hinder economic development and the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Conclusions. Regular monitoring of the level of sustainable development in the Maghreb countries, as well as timely adjustment of actions, serves as a necessary step to achieve prosperity and well-being in the region. Despite many challenges, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania have great potential for sustainable development. However, realizing the Aim. requires considerable effort, political will and effective cooperation, both within the region and internationally. It is necessary to continue to invest in development, strengthen regional cooperation and utilize innovative technologies to achieve a sustainable future.