Specific Aspects of Using Expert Assessment in the Calculation of Economic Efficiency of Movie Projects and the Formation of Batch Production of Movies

The present study develops an innovative approach to the assessment of the economic efficiency of movie projects and calculation of their box-office potential using a model developed by using expert assessment and correlation analysis. Aim. The study aims to formulate and propose an innovative formula model as a tool for scientifically based a priori assessment of the quality of audiovisual projects at the stage of batch preparation and formation. Tasks. The authors substantiate the need for new scientific analytical approaches, describe the elements of the model, and analyze the attributes of a movie as a product, on which its economic efficiency in the form of box-office revenue largely depends. Methods. This study proposes using expert assessment as a basis for the development of an innovative model using correlation weighing coefficients. Their interrelation and degree of effect are determined based on a sample of 20 projects from 2017, each one randomly selected according to its genre, style, and marketing criteria with appropriate accounting for their box-office revenues. Results. After analyzing important qualitative and quantitative characteristics of a movie and ranking them according to the degree of their effect, the innovative model is reduced to accessible, easy-to-use formula. The developed model facilitates the process of managerial decision-making at the stage of project development, simplifies the selection of individual projects during the formation of a project batch for the considered period, and makes it possible to reduce the risks of project failure, thus providing producers with realistic data regarding the potential profitability of the project. Conclusion. In spite of the high accuracy of the practical results obtained during the approbation of the developed model, guaranteed parameters cannot be calculated due to the synthetic nature of cinema both as business and a specific art form.

economic efficiency, commercial cinema, box-office potential, expert assessment method, correlation coefficients, movie project box-office, movie attribute, integrated assessment of a movie project, production budget, strategic management, innovation management, cinema, national movie industry, экономическая эффективность, коммерческий кинематограф, кассовый потенциал, метод экспертных оценок, коэффициенты корреляции, бокс-офис кинопроекта, атрибут фильма, интегральная оценка кинопроекта, производственный бюджет, стратегический менеджмент, инновационный менеджмент, кинематограф, отечественная киноиндустрия

1. Основы продюсерства: аудиовизуальная сфера: учебник / под ред. Г. П. Иванова, П. К. Огурчикова, В. И. Сидоренко. М.: Юнити-Дана, 2003. 719 с.

2. Произведение искусства // Эстетика: энциклопедич. словарь. [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://aesthetics_ru.academic.ru/142/Произведение_искусства.

3. Официальный сайт Фонда кино. URL: http://www.fond-kino.ru.

4. Cohen J.N. Investing in Movies: Strategies for Investors and Producers. Taylor & Francis Group, 2017. 242 p.

5. Дудин М. Н., Лясников Н. В. Стратегический менеджмент: учеб. пособие. 2-е изд. М.: Проспект, 2016. 233 с.

6. Ноакк Н. В., Неволин И. В., Татарников А. С. Методика прогнозирования выручки от проката кинофильмов // Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения. 2012. Т. 5. Вып. 48 (138). С. 17-24.

7. Антонив Ф. И., Ширинская М. С., Невежин В. П. Исследование множественной эконометрической модели влияния факторов на кассовые сборы фильма: [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www.scienceforum.ru/2014/pdf/1404.pdf.

8. Коэффициент корреляции: калькулятор: [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www.easycalculation.com/ru/statistics/correlation.php.