ACTUAL PROBLEMS DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMICS
Aim. The presented study aims to analyze existing approaches and develop recommendations for the numerical assessment of the magnitude of risk associated with the implementation of investment projects.
Tasks. The authors describe traditional approaches to systematic risk assessment; systematize the practice of determining the beta coefficient as a risk measure of investment projects; analyze alternative approaches to assessing discount rate and systematic risk; develop recommendations for leveling the systematic risk measure.
Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison and description, as well as special methods of financial mathematics and economic-mathematical modeling.
Results. Determining the investment attractiveness of a business or project involves forecasting and discounting future cash flows. Obvious risks are accounted for by adjusting cash flows, and most other risks and uncertainties are reflected in the discount rate. One of the specific components of the discount rate is a measure of systematic risk – the beta coefficient. The authors consider the traditional approach to assessing the cost of capital and systematic risk, alternative approaches that have methodological advantages, but are often not applicable in practice due to additional difficulties in calculations, and most importantly – in comparison between projects/ companies/results for different settlement dates. The study also provides a critical analysis of publicly available analytical data through the example of A. Damodaran’s information and analytical resource and highlights problems in the use of statistics for the valuation of projects and companies in the long term due to the significant volatility of the beta coefficient.
Conclusions. In the absence of other reliable sources, analysts should be more careful about the values of published analytical materials, in some cases independently rechecking the data of publicly available analytics using the recommendations presented in this study.
WORLD ECONOMY
Aim. The presented study aims to form an objective idea of factors affecting the system of support for non-resource exports and ensuring the validity of decisions.
Tasks. The authors summarize the main ways of supporting non-resource exports of developed and developing countries; analyze changes in the international regulation of export activities associated with the formation of national support systems for commodity producers; systematize major opportunities for supporting export credits.
Methods. This study analyzes the practices of export credit agencies in various countries in the context of opportunities provided to foreign trade participants; identifies problem areas typical for the current stage of development of trade relations; draws attention to emerging contradictions in the field of support for national non-resources exports by countries.
Results. It is shown that the participants of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits (OECD) operate in an extremely aggressive, yet increasingly unmanageable environment. To secure export contracts, both the domestic industry and the export credit agencies of the OECD member countries should enhance competitiveness by following the rules of the trading system. Otherwise, they risk upsetting the balance on the playing field and hinder sustainable development.
Conclusions. The participants of the OECD Arrangement face a difficult tactical choice: either to take a strong position in support of competition both within the country and within international organizations (WTO, OECD), or to develop their own export credit programs that are not related to the OECD Arrangement. The first option, although preferable in terms of ensuring economic efficiency, long-term competitiveness, and sustainable development, may lead to a reduced role of export credit agencies.
MODERNIZATION OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMICS
Aim. The presented study investigates the ways of organizing logistics support for the population and economic entities in the regions of the Far North of the Russian Federation to propose a new technology for solving these problems using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Tasks. The authors analyze approaches to solving logistics problems in remote and hard-to-reach regions; identify the specific aspects of organizing logistics support for the population and economic entities of the Russian Far North; examine Chinese experience of solving logistics problems using unmanned aerial vehicles and determine the ways of implementing it in Russian conditions.
Methods. This study uses the methods of structural, functional, organizational, technical, and economic analysis, expert assessment, comparative and logistic approaches.
Results. The development of the Russian economy is increasingly based on the opportunities provided by the territories of the Far North. The system of operational logistics support for hard-to-reach areas is a crucial tool for the sustainable development of the country as it efficiently operates in these territories even under economic sanctions. Today, cooperation between neighboring states in solving current and future logistics problems is particularly important. Long-term cooperation between China and Russia has laid the groundwork for mutually beneficial cooperation in the creation of a transport system using unmanned aerial vehicles. This study describes an innovative approach to solving this problem, revealing a new technology for overcoming logistical problems using unmanned aerial vehicles in the regions of the Russian Far North.
Conclusions. China has begun to develop the world’s first operational logistics system for hard-to-reach areas in the form of a three-stage transport network combining transport aircrafts +heavy UAVs + light helicopter-type UAVs. Government bodies consider this system as a tool for solving socio-economic problems in hard-to-reach areas of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A Chinese aircraft that is a licensed copy of the Soviet An-2 serves as the technological basis for a heavy unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). It is recommended to intensify cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China based on the use of Chinese technological developments and stocks of An-2 aircraft stored in Russia.
Aim. The presented study aims to analyze the instruments of government support for regional development in the context of political and economic turbulence caused by anti-Russian sanctions.
Tasks. Through the example of the Leningrad region, the author describes the directions and effects of the macroeconomic shock caused by external sanctions on regional economy and systematizes measures of government support for the regional economy in the context of political and economic turbulence.
Methods. This study uses the methods of retrospective and comparative analysis, analogy and observation, expert assessments, scenario approach, and special methods of regional research.
Results. The performed analysis indicates that the impact of the macroeconomic shock caused by anti-Russian sanctions (2022) on the Russian economy is multidirectional. The degree and nature of its impact vary significantly by region and type of economic activity. However, despite its generally negative nature, this impact has not yet become critical. The analysis results show that the regional economy is sufficiently resistant to crisis challenges. At the same time, the negative impact manifested as a general drop in production volumes or a decrease in real wages is gradually increasing. Therefore, the authorities should be proactive in combating crisis phenomena. In the Leningrad region, such measures are taken actively and efficiently. These need to be focused primarily on supporting import substitution programs and reducing the level of import dependence.
Conclusions. In the context of unprecedented sanctions, reducing the risks of import dependence is one of the key goals of sustainable economic development. The successful solution of import substitution problems today, i.e. as quickly as possible, is important not only for quickly curbing crisis phenomena and restoring the Russian economy back to normal, but also from the perspective of changing the region's economic specialization. The observed turbulence is causing a structural shift in the economy driven by the macroeconomic shock. It is recommendable to ensure the progressivity of the structural shift in the Leningrad region as it will be much more difficult to do this after the transition process is complete. In the context of the transition to a new technological paradigm in the economy, this will limit the competitiveness of the region.
DIGITAL ECONOMICS
Aim. The presented study aims to develop a theoretical basis and a conceptual approach to the digital strategizing of industrial systems based on the paradigm of sustainable eco-innovation development, circular business models, and the transformational impact of Industry 5.0 technologies.
Tasks. The authors propose a theoretical basis for digital strategizing; formulate definitions of digital strategy and digital strategizing of industrial systems; highlight the conceptual domain of digital strategizing; systematize the tools of digital strategizing based on eco-innovation and circular business models in the context of the transition to Industry 5.0 within the framework of the sustainable development paradigm.
Methods. This study uses assessment review to synthesize existing literature on digital transformation and strategy practice based on an eight-step guide for conducting an independent systematic literature review.
Results. The theoretical basis of digital strategizing is based on the co-evolution of approaches and schools of strategy. A distinction is drawn between the concepts of information systems strategizing and digital strategizing, digitalization strategies, digital transformation, and digital strategies. Original definitions of digital strategy and digital strategizing of industrial systems are proposed. A multi-perspective conceptual approach to the digital strategizing of industrial systems based on the integration of technologies, people, and various processes is developed. Relevant tools for the digital strategizing of industrial systems are developed.
Conclusions. In the context of the transition to Industry 5.0, the introduction of digital technologies in industrial systems is necessary, but it does not seem sufficient for success in the digital environment. Digital strategizing requires changing existing and/or creating new business models based on mindset transformation into a new way of working that would allow industrial systems to innovate using technology. Strategic imperatives that should serve as the basis for new business models for the digital strategizing of industrial systems include eco-innovation and circular business models within the framework of the sustainable development paradigm, as well as business models of Industry 5.0.
Aim. The presented study aims to develop a concept of digital transformation through the example of an industrial enterprise to enable comprehensive and efficient digital transformation of separate processes, their stages, and even entire organizations in the industrial sphere.
Tasks. The authors determine a series of preparatory and transformational steps that can be executed with little dependence on the competencies of the head of digital transformation and would facilitate digital transformation in the organization; develop a methodology in the form of an integrated methodological framework that makes it possible to formalize the owner of the organization as the principal and the head of digital transformation as the agent in the process of its implementation.
Methods. The methodological basis of the study includes research in the field of digital transformation and the authors’ analysis of digital transformation cases.
Results. The concept of digital transformation developed in the study contains the necessary methodological tools for the formation of a digital transformation program and its implementation at an industrial enterprise. The created methodological basis of digital transformation makes it possible to consistently plan and carry it out, regardless of the level of digital maturity of the transformed process and organization or the level of competence of the head of digital transformation.
Conclusions. The concept of digital transformation developed by the authors makes it possible to transfer digital transformation events or a large-scale program from the category of managerial search for solutions with a high level of uncertainty to the category of a methodologically sound reproducible and feasible set of actions with a high level of effectiveness. In other words, the proposed concept of digital transformation makes it not an “art” with unpredictable results depending on the competencies of the organizer, but rather a reproducible activity with predictable achievements.
STATE ECONOMIC POLICY
Aim. The presented study aims to analyze the sustainable development of Russian industry in the context of a macroeconomic shock.
Tasks. The authors describe the manifestations and causes of the 2022 macroeconomic shock; assess the impact of the macroeconomic shock on the current level of industrial production in Russia; develop recommendations to ensure the sustainable development of domestic industry based on the implementation of a new industrial policy.
Methods. This study uses the methods of comparative and retrospective analysis, generalization, scenario and situational forecasting, and expert assessment.
Results. The turbulence of economic processes both in Russia and globally has increased dramatically since the end of February 2022. This gave rise to a situation that can be described as a macroeconomic shock, i.e. a significant and transient change in one or more macroeconomic parameters, disturbing the economy's equilibrium and causing a transition to a new quasi-equilibrium state. At the first stage, the macroeconomic shock caused a decline in industrial output. At the second stage, the decline was genereally stopped, but industrial restructuring was initiated, negatively affecting critical and technologically complex production. The analysis of available data clearly indicates a correlation between the magnitude of production decline in certain industrial sectors and the level of their import dependence. At the same time, the potential of traditional import substitution has largely been exhausted. Therefore, the authors propose a model of a new industrial policy for implementation. Its essence is that the state should organize the production of competitive industrial products rather than ensure it. This is a radical paradigm shift. The expressed conceptual idea will require further in-depth study in case it is adopted. The authors believe that this will happen shortly, and the scientific community will join the constructive discussion and elaboration of the ideas presented in the article.
Conclusions. The modern Russian economy in general and industry in particular is developing in the context of a macroeconomic shock caused by the sanctions of the collective West. The production decline caused by the shock is gradually diminishing. However, there is a negative industrial restructuring caused by high import dependence of some industries. To remedy the situation, the idea of a new industrial policy based on a more active role of the state in the economy is proposed.
Aim. The presented study aims to identify the components of national information sovereignty in the context of economic digitalization and to determine the most important directions of its formation in the modern geopolitical situation.
Tasks. The authors consider approaches to understanding the essence of the concept of sovereignty and its specific derivatives, including economic sovereignty, technological sovereignty, etc.; build a scheme of terminology in the field of sovereignty in relation to the state and substantiate the place of information sovereignty on it; identify patterns in the evolution of the content of information sovereignty under the influence of various factors, including digitalization; formulate conditions and directions for further formation of information sovereignty in the modern geopolitical context.
Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, as well as territorial, systemic, evolutionary, and institutional approaches to examine in various aspects the genesis and evolution of the content of the phenomenon and concept of national information sovereignty as a unity of technological and value components in the context of the digitalization of economic activity.
Results. A scheme of terminology in the field of sovereignty in relation to the state is built, showing the ratio of different types of sovereignty, and the place of information sovereignty is substantiated. Major directions for the development of national sovereignty are identified with allowance for the trend of economic digitalization. The evolution of the content of information sovereignty under the influence of the development of digital technologies is traced. The structure and directions of further formation of information sovereignty in the modern geopolitical context are determined.
Conclusions. The importance of national information sovereignty is increasing due to the globalization of information and communication interactions on the Internet, difficulties in marking the institutional boundaries of a particular state in the course of economic digitalization due to the cross-territoriality of digital technologies, and the complexity of the geopolitical situation as countries compete for technological leadership. The formation of Russia's information sovereignty in the context of digital transformation as a unity of its technological and value components is an important objective for ensuring national security, economic independence, and sustainable growth of the domestic economy in the current situation.
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
Aim. The presented study aims to outline directions for the modernization of management in Russian oil and gas companies forming under the influence of high-tech knowledge-intensive production cycles, human capital, and artificial intelligence with allowance for the global challenges of digital technologies.
Tasks. The authors investigate theoretical and practical approaches to structural changes in the management of Russian oil and gas companies that lead to the continuous modernization of the life cycle of technological chains and innovative scenarios for the development of economic entities in the long term; consider management decisions from the perspective of targets and costs, since management systems are significantly corrected under the influence of global challenges in a unified digital model of regional socio-economic development.
Methods. This study uses dialectical scientific methods of cognition, complex analysis of tools used in the formation of intellectual capital on the basis of integration processes of Internet mobility, cloud computing, analytical business processes of managerial influence and social media networks, synergetic effects in the modernization of management in oil and gas companies. The study also examines scenario approaches to the development of the economic segments of the real sector through the example of ten systemically important Russian companies.
Results. Digital transformation of management in oil and gas companies based on blockchain tools, artificial intelligence, online banking, trade marketplaces, and targeted advertising determines the priorities of industrial development of national economic models in the context of global challenges. The conducted scientific analysis shows a significant modernization of management in the domains of information and analytical data processing, expert evaluation of the digital array of indicators, and marketing approaches of companies driving innovative development, which actively use crowdsourcing, public interfaces, cloud technologies, virtual space, artificial intelligence, and robotics in justifying scenarios for long-term development and enhancing the competitiveness of the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy.
Conclusions. Priority directions for the modernization of management in oil and gas companies are based on the use of modern digital shells, IT platforms, services involving the introduction of structural resource-saving materials, and additive technologies. The transformational model of company management involves the use of modern management tools that make it possible to optimize asset management, forecasting systems, and monitoring of strategic business units aimed at optimizing budgeting in order to increase the efficiency of project activities. A comprehensive assessment of the management of economic entities in the context of global challenges is based on criteria for assessing the functioning of internal or external accelerators, business incubators, venture incentives, the availability of innovative potential for the implementation of promising projects in the Russian oil and gas complex in the context of global challenges using public-private partnership tools on the platforms of modern software products.
EDUCATION
Aim. The presented study aims to analyze problems in the development of higher education in the context of strengthening the national sovereignty of the Russian Federation.
Tasks. The authors consider the specifics of modern education; substantiate the need for the digital transformation of the educational process and the creation of a comprehensive digital electronic educational platform management system at universities; prove that the educational process should be student-centered, with the teachers constantly increasing their professional competence; analyze the current state of methodological support for the educational process; highlight the trend towards network interaction and universities’ participation in federal programs.
Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, including analysis and synthesis, and the systems approach to identify major trends in the development of higher education.
Results. One specific aspect of modern education is the changing relationship between the value of information and its accessibility. The activity of teachers at higher educaiton institutions requires constant self-improvement, i.e. improving professional competence and developing professionally significant qualities in accordance with modern requirements and a personal development program. An obvious trend in the development of universities engaged in vocational training is the expansion of their network interaction: universities join consortia of scientific and educational centers. Nowadays, a special role should be assigned to the university’s humanities courses, which have a unique set of functions that make it possible to efficiently respond to the challenges of the time.
Conclusions. In fact, higher education institutions that train highly qualified professionals serve as drivers of technological breakthrough, strengthening the technological sovereignty and economic security of our country. They directly affect the future of the state and the stabilization of its national sovereignty. It is concluded that teachers should currently focus on helping students find the necessary information, analyze it, adequately evaluate it, form their own opinion and understanding. It is important to make complex changes in the content of teaching materials and in their usage context.