FINANCES AND CREDIT
Aim. The work aimed to summarize the results of the development of the mortgage lending market during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and predict its development in the near future.
Tasks. The work was performed to investigate the volume of issuance and growth rates of mortgage lending in Russia; to analyze the dynamics of the total mortgage portfolio of the banking system of the Russian Federation (RF), as well as the average cost of 1 square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets in a pandemic, combined with government support; demonstrate possible changes in the Russian mortgage market during the exit out of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequences of the implementation of state market support programs.
Methods. The methodological foundation of the study was the general scientific methods of cognition, namely analysis, synthesis, generalization, visualization, and forecasting. In particular, the authors analyzed the indicators of the mortgage lending and real estate markets, identified causal relationships between the state support for mortgage lending and changes in the main parameters of the real estate market, as well as forecasting the dynamics of its individual indicators.
Results. The work presents the main indicators characterizing mortgage lending in Russia from 2014 to the present time, including the aggregate mortgage portfolio of Russian banks. The study describes the average cost of 1 square meter of housing in the primary and secondary markets. The authors of the article predicted changes in the mortgage lending market, the state of the quality of bank loan portfolios and trends in the residential real estate market as a whole.
Conclusion. Under conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage lending has shown its incredible growth in association with government support. However, according to the authors, there will be significant changes in the future, which will be the consequences of such a rapid development, namely an increase in overdue indebtedness on mortgage loans, a shortage of demand for built housing which has sharply become expensive. Banks will be forced to tighten monitoring of mortgage programs and select carefully new borrowers, ensuring their highest quality.
WORLD ECONOMY
Aim. The presented study aims to structure the major elements of modernization policy and to conduct a comparative institutional analysis of modernization practices in Russia and Japan.
Tasks. The authors identify common and different elements in the modernization strategies adopted by Russian and Japanese authorities; determine the reasons for the success of the implemented policy and the reasons for failed modernization attempts.
Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition and the institutional approach to analyze economic processes and examine the modernization policy in Russia and Japan over the past century and a half.
Results. Despite a certain connection and some similarities between modernization waves in Russia and Japan, the origins, driving forces, and, most importantly, the results of modernization processes in these countries have significant differences. Japanese reformers have the advantage of the inherently Japanese ability to adapt a variety of institutions to solve the urgent tasks of national development. The peculiarity of Russian modernization waves was their scale, along with a radical restructuring of basic institutions. This resulted in both the outstanding success and effectiveness of the reforms as well as their cost and incompleteness, which generated waves of counter-reforms.
Conclusion. By studying and comparing modernization waves in Russia and Japan, it is possible to identify the national specifics of problems associated with social reforms and factors that ensure favorable results of the modernization process. Institutional reforms play an important role among such factors. A criterion of their success is the ability to adapt traditional institutions to productive work in new conditions.
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
Aim. The presented study aims to determine methodological approaches to adapting the balanced scorecard to the assessment of the efficiency of oil and gas enterprises in the fuel and energy sector of the Russian Federation; to propose approaches to its improvement; to investigate institutions and tools that can contribute to improving the level of corporate management in the context of the digitalization of the economy.
Tasks. The authors describe the mission and strategic goals of oil and gas enterprises; develop key performance indicators for each area of activity; identify strategic initiatives to achieve goals; analyze cause-and-effect relationships and propose a strategy map for a vertically integrated company that facilitates the improvement of management efficiency and competitiveness of enterprises in accordance with industry affiliation.
Methods. This study uses the methods of abstraction and aggregation, historical analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, systems and structural approaches.
Results. A management tool is obtained, which links indicators in different areas (financial, industrial, technical, social) with allowance for the specifics of the industry and increases the level of informatization for the process of making strategic managerial decisions. It is proved that the assessment of business management efficiency in the context of the digitalization of the economy should be considered not only through KPIs, but also using extended criteria and indicators at various levels of management as part of an integrated approach.
Conclusion. Efficient management of vertically integrated companies in the context of the digitalization of the economy requires a system that would make it possible to constantly monitor the company’s goals, objectives, and strategies, to combine functional strategies of various subsidiaries, to harmonize and coordinate actions, to combine not only financial indicators, but also intangible ones in the broad sense of the word (technical and technological, organizational, social, etc.) using a comprehensive and balanced approach in the long term. The main task is to transform the classical approach proposed by Norton and Kaplan both to the process of digitalization of the Russian economy, and to the lack of necessary information, use of old mining technologies, the transition towards the development of hard-to-recover reserves of natural resources, and the presence of workers who do not have the necessary competencies.
Aim. The work aimed to reveal the importance of creative employees for the organization, to describe approaches to their activities aimed at improving labor efficiency in a pandemic.
Tasks. The work was performed to identify the benefits and drawbacks in the work of creative employees, demonstrate the experience of interacting with them, characterize the aspects of personnel management, including creative employees, in a pandemic.
Methods. The phenomenon of creativity, the behavioral characteristics of creative employees, and possible ways of communication are discussed through analysis of scientific articles, materials of conferences on personnel management in a pandemic, and interviews.
Results. The study of the phenomenon of creativity has shown the important role of creative employees in any modern organization, the risks of managing them, the implementation of the main fields of management and communication in a pandemic. The forced transition of organizations to remote work has insignificantly complicated communication with employees, and their effectiveness in the performance of official duties. Various management tools are used to maintain stable and effective communication with employees.
Conclusion. Despite the complexity of managing creative employees, in view of their great value for any modern organization, trade-offs in managing them are required. Organizations mastered quickly the peculiarities of personnel management, including creative employees, in forced transition to remote work. There are various remote management and communication tools to keep all employees up and running.
MATHEMATICAL MODELING, SYSTEM ANALYSIS
Aim. The presented study aims to address the issues of parameter estimation in the problems of optimal resources allocation for the previously introduced competition indicator; to analyze the influence of dimensionality, resource constraints, and other factors on the competition indicator; to exemplify the relationship between the indicator and the extremum of the objective function, constraints, and dual estimates.
Tasks. The authors consider cases when the competition indicator captures a change in the initial data that cannot be estimated on the basis of traditional indicators of analysis and estimates: the maximum of the objective function, the optimal solution, Lagrange multipliers, or dual variables; determine the relationship between the competition indicator and the optimum of the objective function and dual variables through examples and in general; show that the analysis of the results of solving the problem becomes more capacious and informative if the factor of variable “competitiveness” is applied; identify patterns between efficiency, competition, resource constraints, and dual estimates.
Methods. The selected competition indicator for optimal resource allocation tasks is based on the concept of “rigorous selection” of competitors applying for resources. The indicators are calculated in full accordance with the known optimality conditions for problems of this class, making it possible to interpret the results of optimization as a measure of competition for resources.
Results. The provided examples reflect linear and nonlinear functions as well as the relationship between the competition indicator and dual estimates, resource constraints, and efficiency. It is proved that the competition indicator logically fits into the traditional analysis of the results of solving the problem of linear and nonlinear programming with allowance for duality.
Conclusion. The competition indicators considered in the study can be included in the standard analysis for solving the problems of optimal resource allocation, which involves finding an extremum, searching for an optimal plan, analyzing stability, limits, dual estimates, a measure of resource scarcity. As can be seen from the examples, applying the competition indicator to the analysis not only makes the analysis of the results more capacious and informative, but also makes it possible to detect patterns between competition and efficiency, similar to when the removal of barriers and restrictions in the economy leads to its revival, and the reduction of resources causes increased competition.
EDUCATION
Aim. The work aimed to analyze contemporary approaches to the development of the export of educational services, as well as the practice of managing this process in the Russian Primorye, as well as to substantiate the concept of its state support at the regional level.
Tasks. The work was performed to generalize theoretical ideas about modern models of export of educational services and analyze the concepts adopted in Russia, as well as programs for its development in the mid-term; to identify and systematize trends and problems in the development of exports of higher education services in the Primorsky Territory over the past ten years to citizens of the border provinces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC); develop a conceptual model of state support for the export of educational services at the regional level and a model of the strategic directions of this process at the university level.
Methods. The tasks were solved within the framework of the accepted research hypothesis, using the methods of systemic, structural, and functional analysis in a strict logical sequence, with the use of a large array of theoretical and factual data.
Results. The stable dynamics of the development of export of higher education services to the PRC in the pre-pandemic period was determined. The authors substantiate the problem of managing this process at the macro and micro levels, with increased competition in the markets of international educational services. A conceptual model of state support for the export of educational services is proposed.
Conclusion. The studies conducted and the results obtained serve as an organizational and methodological basis for the implementation of a more effective policy for the development of the export of educational services in the Russian regions bordering the PRC.
Aim. The work aimed, based on the analysis of current trends in the development of the service sector of youth educational tourism, to identify the conditions for effective management of personnel training for it with the maximum involvement of young people.
Tasks. The work was performed to characterize the current trends in the development of the service sector of youth educational tourism; consider the personnel training management model for this area, and justify the conditions for its effective application.
Methods. The trends in the development of the service sector of youth educational tourism, the personnel training management model for this area and the conditions for its effective application were considered using general methods of scientific cognition.
Results. Certain trends in the development of the service sector of youth educational tourism are registered, namely the increasing importance of youth educational tourism as a tool to meet the needs of young people in continuous self-development and raising the level of education and professionalism; lack of professional staff for the service sector under study; an increase in the role of programs of additional professional education and vocational training, the implementation of which requires the presence of a practical component at the enterprises of partneremployers; strengthening the role of volunteer communities, including with the involvement of professional young specialists.
Conclusion. The study revealed that the conditions for effective management of personnel training for the service sector of youth educational tourism include the systemic nature of personnel training, including in youth educational tourist centers operating under educational organizations; development of the volunteer movement at these centers as a contemporary tool for interacting with the consumer, monitoring the effectiveness of personnel training in the centers based on criteria-based assessments, managing risk factors as a guarantee of consumer safety.
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH OF YOUNG SCIENTISTS
Aim. The work aimed to identify the explanatory factors that determine the level of export diversification of countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2010–2021.
Tasks. The work was performed to analyze theoretical aspects of export diversification of Eastern European countries; analyze the dynamics of changes in the volumes and structure of exports of the CEE states; assess the main factors influencing the process of export diversification in the countries of the region under consideration, and identify possible prospects for its further development.
Methods. The author used such research methods as statistical analysis, observation, econometric analysis, generalization, description, graphical modeling and data classification.
Results. The econometric analysis results suggest that there is a long-term relationship between export diversification and per capita gross domestic product, trade openness, human and physical capital accumulation, and foreign direct investment.
Conclusion. The socio-economic indicators analyzed in this article are the main factors stimulating the process of export diversification in the CEE countries. During the study period of 2010–2021, the inflation rate showed a negative effect on the degree of export diversification in the CEE countries.
Aim. The work aimed to review and analyze the opinions of international Sovietologists regarding the ways of the Soviet economy development of the late socialist period, as well as to identify problems of the prognostic potential of international Sovietology.
Tasks. The work was performed to study scenarios for the development of the pre-perestroika Soviet economic model and problems in their prediction by international analysts.
Methods. The object of study was the international historiography of the USSR economic history in the pre-perestroika period. The sources of information were official statistics and the works of international analysts. The authors of this article used general scientific research methods, as well as methods of historical and economic analysis.
Results. An analysis of international studies shows that the hypothetical scenarios for the development of the Soviet Union put forward by Sovietologists before perestroika were based on prognosis of previous years, conflicting statistical data and scientific methods tested under the conditions of the capitalist economic model. Meanwhile, the Soviet planned socialist model represented a different type of economy, which had not previously been tried to be implemented on a national scale (the situation remains the same in the period considered). According to the position of international researchers, despite the low growth values of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the main leader of the economy, the industrial sector (taking into account the fall in oil revenues and stiffening of sanctions against the USSR in the early 1980s), the economy remained stable. Due to large margins of safety in the form of developed industry, agriculture, infrastructure, high scientific potential, and a huge stock of natural resources, the further existence of the USSR was not in doubt.
Conclusion. Many Sovietologists have written about the need for fundamental changes in the Soviet planned economic system. At the same time, they took into account the significant difficulties and risks associated with possible reforms, believing that the consequences of the radical introduction of the market into the planned economy could be significant disturbances. This is one of the reasons why, in the pre-perestroika period, few Western analysts admitted the possibility of large-scale reforms in the near future.
Aim. The work aimed to develop proposals to improve the state policy in the field of women’s entrepreneurship in the Russian Federation (RF).
Tasks. The work was performed to reveal the specifics of women’s entrepreneurship in Russia; identify the main obstacles and problems specific to Russian female entrepreneurs; analyze the existing programs of state support for women’s entrepreneurship in RF, their completeness and effectiveness of implementation.
Methods. The aspects of the development of women’s entrepreneurship in Russia are analyzed using general methods of scientific cognition in various fields. Within the study conducted in March 2021 in the format of an electronic survey of 35 female respondents employed in small and medium-sized businesses in six cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sochi, Vladivostok, Yaroslavl, Surgut), the main problems faced by female entrepreneurs were revealed, as well as threats and opportunities for women’s entrepreneurship under the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as well as an assessment of the level of government support was presented from the respondents.
Results. The main obstacles for women in establishing their own business in Russia were found to be the problems of financing, initial investments, and searching for investors, the problems of poor development of business education and financial literacy, as well as difficult administrative obstacles and insufficient state support. In addition, a high adaptability of women in business was also established. This characteristic is evidenced by many previous studies. However in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the skills of female leaders, the ability to make the right strategic decisions and exercise management competently in crisis situations have come to the fore.
Conclusion. Taking into account the identified obstacles to the development of women’s entrepreneurship, the existing state support in this field seems to be insufficiently effective. As part of solving this problem, a number of measures can be proposed, namely the creation of an all- Russian educational center for female entrepreneurs with regional branches in all major cities of Russia; the introduction of the concept of “women’s entrepreneurship” into the law on support for small and medium-sized businesses and the formation of a specific unit in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation; establishing a tax holiday regime for single mothers and mothers with many children who run a business in small towns and rural areas.