Implementation of Anti-Crisis Measures for the Population and Business in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the macroeconomic situation worldwide, and for Russia these changes can be particularly dramatic. Over the past seven years, the Russian economy has been stagnating, with all the associated negative trends - capital outflows, declining investment in fixed assets and human capital, and progressive aging of fixed assets. What makes the current situation difficult is the sharp decline or even complete lack of income in the industries most affected by the pandemic shock. This has already led to the mass withdrawal of many small and medium enterprises with no reserves from the market, disruption of production linkages, increased unemployment, and, ultimately, increased poverty.

Aim. The presented study aims to summarize, assess, and develop proposals for improving the system of anti-crisis social and business support in Russia with allowance for foreign experience and the fiscal capacity of the monetary system of the Russian Federation.

Tasks. The authors examine theoretical concepts that determine the types of economic shocks associated with the pandemic; analyze the predicted impact of COVID-19 on GDP growth in developed and developing countries; consider the main fiscal and tax incentives in international practice; assess the scope of incentives in various countries and in Russia; describe anti-crisis measures taken in Russia at the federal level and in the Kursk region; identify key directions for improving the mechanism and tools of credit and tax policy implementation in Russia.

Results. The study determines the potential revenue losses of the Russian budget system and compares Russian practices at the federal level and in the Kursk region with foreign experience. On this basis, the authors assess the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures in Russia with allowance for the requirements and capacity of the fiscal response of the budget system. It is established that the most efficient option involves a comprehensive set of tools to support the Russian economy, some of which would be able to compensate for reduced demand, while others would support businesses and families in the affected sectors of the economy. To this end, it is necessary to continue using various channels to provide support for affected consumers, including by easing monetary policy, granting installments on loans, taxes, utility bills, and direct budgetary and extra-budgetary funding of families left without sources of income.

Conclusions. Analysis of the current economic situation in Russia shows that the unique scale of the COVID-19 threat calls for systematic government support measures. The spread of the pandemic crisis and restrictive measures has affected all sectors of the economy. This is why national regulatory and administrative authorities have been taking unprecedented measures to support the population and business since the early days of coronavirus detection in the country. Funds from budgets of all levels and social extra-budgetary funds have been allocated for this purpose, and commercial banks act as guarantors in preferential loans. These circumstances raise the controversial issue of the scope of incentives that can be allowed and whether it can coincide with the scope of necessary anti-crisis measures. The authors provide answers to these questions in this study.

1. Nekipelov A.D. Some considerations on the possibilities of accelerating the growth of the Russian economy. Nauchnye trudy Vol'nogo ekonomicheskogo obshchestva Rossii = Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia. 2018;214(6):370-379. (In Russ.).

2. Coronavirus update: Long-term economic impact forecast to be less than 2008 recession. URL: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-20 (accessed on 30.04.2020).

3. Plotnikov V.A., Vertakova Yu.V. A systematic approach to assessing ways to overcome the financial and economic crisis. Sovremennye tekhnologii. Sistemnyi analiz. Modelirovanie = Modern Technologies. System Analysis. Modeling. 2010;(3):213-224. (In Russ.).

4. Plotnikov V.A., Vertakova Yu.V. The consequences of modern economic transformations and ways to overcome the financial crisis in Russia. Izvestiya Irkutskoi gosudarstvennoi ekonomicheskoi akademii = Izvestiya of Irkutsk State Economics Academy. 2010;(6):71-78. (In Russ.).

5. Trunin P., Evseev A., Iskhakova F., Goryunov E. Socio-economic measures to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19: International experience. Monitoring ekonomicheskoi situatsii v Rossii = Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. 2020;(6):3-12. URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/monreo/monreo-2020-6-1010.pdf (accessed on 05.05.2020). (In Russ.).

6. The post-pandemic world and Russia: a new reality? Moscow Academic Economic Forum — 2020. Russia Today. May 14, 2020. URL: http://pressmia.ru/pressclub/20200514/952753724.html (accessed on 15.05.2020). (In Russ.).

7. How in different countries there is budget support for the economy in a pandemic. Ekonomika i zhizn'. May 07, 2020. URL: https://www.eg-online.ru/news/419705 (accessed on 15.05.2020). (In Russ.).

8. Materials for the 26th expert session of the Coordination Club of the Free Economic Society (VEO) of Russia. VEO of Russia. May 03, 2020. URL: http://www.veorus.ru/%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%8F/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/materialy-k-26-oy-ekspertnoy-sessii-koordinatsionnogo-kluba-veo-rossii/ (accessed on 11.05.2020). (In Russ.).

9. Maiburov I.A., ed. Tax policy. Theory and practice. Moscow: Yuniti-Dana; 2010. 519 p. (In Russ.).

10. Eskindarov M.A., Maslennikov V.V., eds. New trajectories of development of the financial sector of Russia. Moscow: Cogito-Centre; 2019. 368 p. (In Russ.).

11. Aganbegyan A.G. Methods of digital economy in terms of management and control activities in the real economy. Ekonomicheskie strategii = Economic Strategies. 2019;21(4):42-49. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.33917/es-4.162.2019.42-49

12. Sorokin D.E. Political economy of Russia's technological modernization. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozh-denie Rossii = The Economic Revival of Russia. 2020;(1):18-25. (In Russ.).

13. Feoktistova T.V. Causes and effects of tax doctrine modification in the Russian Federation. Innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki = Innovative Development of Economy. 2016;(3-1):149-154. (In Russ.).

14. Mindich D. Every man for himself. Association “SibAkademInnovatsiya”. Mar. 03, 2009. URL: http://www.sibai.ru/spasajsya-kto-mozhet.html (accessed on 12.05.2020). (In Russ.).

15. Krugman P. The return of depression economics. New York: W.W. Norton & Co.; 2000. 207 p. (Russ. ed.: Krugman P. Vozvrashchenie Velikoy depressii? Moscow: Eksmo; 2009. 336 p.).

16. Maiburov I.A., Ivanov Yu.B., eds. Tax reforms. Theory and practice. Moscow: Yuniti-Dana; 2010. 463 p. (In Russ.).

17. Nekipelov A.D. The crisis in economics: Its nature and ways to recovery. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk = Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2019;89(1):24-37. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31857/S0869-587389124-37

18. Aganbegyan A.G. On the social policy priorities. Moscow: Delo; 2019. 512 p. (In Russ.).

19. Emel'yanov S.G., Vertakova Yu.V., Solodukhina O.I. Methodological approaches to the development of state policy in the field of rational use of regional assets. Izvestiya Yugo-Zapadnogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Proceedings of South-West State University. 2016;(6):102-110. (In Russ.).

20. Perskaya V.V., Eskindarov M.A. Entering multipolarity. Transitional essays. Moscow: Kurs; 2019. 304 p. (In Russ.).

21. Sorokin D.E. On Russia's ability of socio-economic transformations. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii = The Economic Revival of Russia. 2019;(1):23-28. (In Russ.).

22. Machavariani G.I., Kobrinskaya I.Ya., eds. Russia and the world: 2020. Economics and foreign policy. Annual forecast. Moscow: IMEMO RAS; 2019. 172 p. (In Russ.).