The concept of adaptive risk management

Aim. The work aimed to develop scientific and methodological principles for an adaptive risk management concept that determines the prioritization of risk management methods depending on the level of economic instability.

Methods. The concept’s principles were developed based on a synthesis of Russian and international risk management literature, empirical hypothesis testing, and project modeling. The baseline hypothesis was verified through a survey of 302 manufacturing employees (Cronbach’s α = 0.84). Practical recommendations are proposed for implementation at two metal-processing companies.

Results. The work developed and empirically validated the key principle of the adaptive risk management concept on a direct link between the current level of economic instability and the application of risk management methods in organizations. The central tenet of the concept, specifically the rule for dynamic change of the applicability (priority) of risk management methods depending on the identified level of economic instability, was formulated and formalized. This provision is implemented in the form of a method application matrix, which assigns a numerical priority (1–5) to each of the 20 risk management methods for each of the five levels of external economic instability. We provided a rationale for operationalizing the concept through digital tools. In accordance with this provision, we designed the architecture and interface of the corresponding software modules. These modules facilitate the adaptive selection of methods depending on the level of economic instability and demonstrate the operation of the rule formulated. Prototype software modules were designed and integrated into the proposed concept. These include a Production Risk Management Center, a risk management method designer, a risk management method effectiveness matrix depending on the level of economic instability, a risk management method registry, and an analytical module for calculating the level of economic instability based on regression analysis and deviations from trend. We proposed a provision on the industry specification of the risk management methods included in the matrix. For each of the 20 selected methods, we developed recommendations for their application, taking into account the goals and conditions of manufacturing enterprises (for example, using failure modes and effects analysis for proactive equipment failure analysis, and the “bow tie” method for visualizing critical assets).

Conclusions. The combination of the developed principles forms a holistic concept that elevates an organization’s risk management to a higher level, activating a dynamic, context-sensitive risk management mode.

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