The role of CO₂ capture and utilization technologies (CCU) in the development of a circular carbon economy

Aim. The work aimed to assess the global and Russian potential for reducing technogenic CO₂ emissions through carbon utilization technologies with the production of various types of carbon-containing products (CCU), and to consider these technologies as an element of the concept of a carbon circular economy as a promising way to reduce anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in the context of the global climate policy transformation.

Objectives. The work seeks to collect and systematize up-to-date information on the current level of development of CO₂ conversion technologies into various types of products, to analyze the market conditions for these products, and assess the potential for emissions reductions for the period up to 2050.

Methods. The research methodology consists of several stages, including the collection and preprocessing of initial data to forecasting. In the initial stages, marketing analysis approaches were applied to identify key industry trends and tendencies. The work applied a life cycle analysis of products, which manufacture is possible through CCU. After systematizing and standardizing the information on each product, their entry into existing markets was modeled (taking into account the trends in these markets) using a logistics function.

Results. For the production of CO₂-derived products, characterized by long-term carbon storage, the global emission reduction potential could reach 3.6 billion tons of CO₂ per year, and up to 3.9 billion tons of CO₂ per year for options with short-term storage. For Russia, these values are 61 and 251 million tons of CO₂ per year, respectively, which, under favorable scenarios, could increase to 136 and 501 million tons of CO₂ per year.

Conclusions. The work identified key risks associated with the development of CCU projects, including high capital intensity, long implementation periods, and technological barriers to CO₂ capture and utilization. CCU represent an undervalued but strategically significant group of low-carbon technologies, potentially capable of maintaining a balance between industrial development and achieving climate goals. It was concluded that the development of a Carbon circular economy is among Russia’s national interests and could become a significant element of the new climate agenda focused on the rational use of resources and technological modernization.

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