Identifying Risks and Key Factors in the Foreign Economic Activity of a Metallurgical Company Based on the Qualitative Modeling Method

Abstract

This study is aimed at examining the foreign economic activity of Russian metallurgical companies amid poorly predictable changes in the external environment that make it necessary to identify and keep track of major risks that affect the results of the business activity of enterprises. Aim. This study aims to propose the author’s approach to identifying and assessing the risks of a metallurgical company using a system prediction model. Tasks. This study identifies internal and external risks that have a direct or indirect influence on foreign economic activity; determines key supporting factors for foreign economic activity indicators; and pinpoint the most sensitive foreign economic activity indicators during the implementation of adverse scenarios of external environment transformation. Methods. Major single and multiple external and internal risks within the framework of the most likely adverse scenarios over the next seven years are identified using weighted directed graphs based on a multi-factor calculations cycle of a prediction model. The results of the modeling allow identifying the most dangerous risks threatening the foreign economic activity of a metallurgical company, which include: macroeconomic, political, industrial economic risks and risks of sanctions imposed on Russia. Summary of the modeling results allow factors supporting factors for foreign economic activity indicators during the implementation of adverse scenarios of external environment transformation. Conclusion. The obtained results allow managers to preempt the implications of the realization of major risks and develop managerial solutions that would reduce negative implications.