Forecasting Russian Food Exports in the Face of Uncertainty Using the Input-Output Method

The presented study examines the conditions and factors for the implementation of national projects in Russia during the transition towards a digital economy. Particular attention is paid to the use of the input-output method in forecasting the final operating results of the Russian agro-food industry, with a focus on identifying key factors for the growth of competitive food exports in the medium term.

Aim. The study aims to analyze the specific aspects of forecasting Russian food exports in the face of uncertainty using the input-output method.

Tasks. The authors substantiate the need to use the input-output method for the scientific analysis of management decisions in the field of foreign economic activity and identify the specific features of a new approach to forecasting food exports in the face of uncertainty.

Methods. The methodology used in this study is determined by the increasing uncertainty of foreign economic relations, which calls for modern economic and mathematical methods in forecasting. The authors propose using their own modification of the symmetrical input-output table of the Russian agro-food industry and the method of dynamic data visualization to examine processes with a high level of uncertainty.

Results. The study describes the conditions and factors for the growth of Russian food exports in the context of increasing uncertainty in the development of world trade; substantiates the necessity and presents the results of the transformation of operation of public and commercial organizations engaged in exports; proposes a systems approach to forecasting the vector of the final product of the Russian agro-food industry and the vector of exports as its component that would ensure the implementation of national projects to improve the population's quality of life; estimates the probability of sustainable growth of Russian food exports in the medium term.

Conclusions. In the context of crisis phenomena in the world economy, the Russian export management system offers new forms of support for exporters through digital transformation of services, diversification of traditional foreign relations and state export support measures, ensures the dissemination of new efficient business practices and development of an export support strategy for the post-crisis period. By using the input-output method in the forecasting of food exports, it is possible to comprehensively substantiate a system of national projects aimed at increasing the population's quality of life and strengthening the country's food security. To justify forecasts amid the increasing uncertainty in the development of foreign economic relations, it is necessary to use data visualization over time to estimate the probability of achieving the parameters of national projects in the medium term.

1. On the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of July 21, 2020 No. 474. URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202007210012 (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

2. The authorities have prepared a three-stage plan for the recovery of the Russian economy until 2021. Interfax. May 19, 2020. URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/709308 (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

3. Passport of the national project (program) “International cooperation and export”. Approved by the Presidium of the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for strategic development and national projects (Minutes No. 16 dated December 24, 2018). URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_319212/ (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

4. State program for the development of agriculture and regulation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and food for 2013-2020. Official website of the Government of Russia. URL: http://government.ru/rugovclassifier/815/events/ (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

5. Reshetnikova N.V. Zarubezhnyi opyt gosudarstvennoi podderzhki vneshnetorgovoi deyatel’nosti. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo = Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship. 2019;(4):92-96. (In Russ.).

6. Russian export center. Exporters of Russia: Unified information portal. URL: http://www.rusexporter.ru/materials/ (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

7. International trade amid the coronavirus. What can the participants of foreign economic activity expect now. ELTB: Customs operator. Apr. 15, 2020. URL: https://eltbroker.ru/novosti/mejdunarodnaya_torgovlya_v_usloviyah_koronavirusa._na_chto_seychas_rasschityivat_uchastnikam_ved(accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

8. The spread of the new coronavirus. RIA Novosti. URL: https://ria.ru/20200312/1568471716. html (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

9. Vaintraub E. Spread of coronavirus will lead to difficulties for suppliers. Iz.ru. Mar. 10, 2020. URL: https://iz.ru/984954/ekaterina-vaintraub/rasprostranenie-koronavirusa-privedet-k-slozhnostiam-dlia-postavshchikov (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

10. Anfinogentova A.A. Vector economics of the agri-food complex: New opportunities for systemic management of the implementation of national projects. Regional’nye agrosistemy: ekonomika i sotsiologiya = Regional Agrosystems: Economics and Sociology. 2020;(2):5-9. URL: http://iagpran.ru/datas/users/3388566b6764639d96f603bdcf478242.pdf (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

11. Russian Export Center: Coronavirus has changed the structure of international demand for Russian products. Russian Export Center. May 13, 2020. URL: https://www.exportcenter.ru/press_center/news/rets-koronavirus-izmenil-strukturu-mezhdunarodnogo-sprosa-na-rossiyskuyu-produktsiyu/(accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

12. Sal’nikova E. Changes in foreign exchange legislation: How the state will support exports in 2020. New Retail. Jan. 31, 2020. URL: https://new-retail.ru/business/ekonomika/izmeneniya_v_valyutnom_zakonodatelstve_kak_gosudarstvo_budet_podderzhivat_eksport_v_2020_godu4585/ (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

13. REC reviews measures to support exporters in connection with coronavirus. TASS Agency. May 6, 2020. URL: https://futurerussia.gov.ru/nacionalnye-proekty/rec-peresmatrivaet-mery-podderzki-eksporterov-v-svazi-s-koronavirusom (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

14. REC will help exporters reduce losses from coronavirus. TASS Agency. Mar. 23, 2020. URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/8053017 (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

15. Anfinogentova A.A., Reshetnikova E.G. Study of the dynamics of cash income, demand and food consumption by the population of Russia. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoi teorii = Russian Journal of the Economic Theory. 2016;(1):24-31. (In Russ.).

16. Yakovenko N.A., Ivanenko I.S., Voronov A.S. Assessment and development prospects of the export potential of the agri-food complex of Russia. Mezhdunarodnyi sel’skokhozyaistvennyi zhurnal = International Agricultural Journal. 2018;(5):73-77. (In Russ.).

17. Yakovenko N.A., Ivanenko I.S. Trends in the development of agri-food exports in Russia: Regional aspect. Mezhdunarodnyi sel’skokhozyaistvennyi zhurnal = International Agricultural Journal. 2020;(4):14-18. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/2587-6740-2020-14063

18. Yakovenko N.A., Ivanenko I.S., Voronov A.S. Diversification of Russian agri-food exports. Mezhdunarodnyi sel’skokhozyaistvennyi zhurnal = International Agricultural Journal. 2019;(5):69-73. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/2587-6740-2019-15089

19. Potapov A.P. The impact of long-term trends in the formation of the resource potential of agricultural production on the growth of food exports. Regional’nye agrosistemy: ekonomika i sotsiologiya = Regional Agrosystems: Economics and Sociology. 2020;(2):32-37. URL: http://iagpran.ru/datas/users/a13021956eb5bd842c880f38adfdddd0.pdf (accessed on 30.07.2020). (In Russ.).

20. Trifonova E.N. Assessment of the prospects for the implementation of the federal project “Export of agricultural products” taking into account the existing trends in the development of the food industry in the Russian Federation. Regional’nye agrosistemy: ekonomika i sotsiologiya = Regional Agrosystems: Economics and Sociology. 2019;(3):64-69. URL: http://iagpran.ru/datas/users/25685c71efcfb83e7412dd42660b33d4.pdf (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

21. Agro-industrial complex of Russia in 2008: Coll. Moscow: Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation; 2009. 544 p. (In Russ.).

22. Agro-industrial complex of Russia in 2012: Coll. Moscow: Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation; 2013. 605 p. (In Russ.).

23. Agro-industrial complex of Russia in 2015: Coll. Moscow: Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation; 2016. 702 p. (In Russ.).

24. Agro-industrial complex of Russia in 2018: Coll. Moscow: Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation; 2019. 536 p. (In Russ.).

25. Export of selected goods (Russian Federation). EMISS. State statistics. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/37393 (accessed on 25.07.2020). (In Russ.).

26. Hullman J. Confronting unknowns: How to interpret uncertainty in common forms of data visualization. Scientific American. 2019;321(3):80-83. URL: http://file.magzdb.org/ul/2490/

27. Scientific%20American%202019%2009.pdf (Russ. ed.: Hullman J. Uvidet’ neopredelennost’. Kak s pomoshch’yu metodov vizualizatsii dannykh izuchat’ neopredelennye protsessy. V mire nauki. 2019;(11):68-71).

28. Negm M.M. Modeling and forecasting of food security for wheat in Egypt through year 2025 by using time series ARIMA models. The Journal of Social Sciences Research. 2018;4(5):510-518. DOI: 10.32861/jssr.spi5.510.518