Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Economy Sectors Using Network Modeling
https://doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2020-3-306-314
Abstract
This study presents the results of the economic modeling of commodity export flows from the Russian Federation in 2012–2016.
Aim. The study aims to assess the direct and indirect effects of the US and European sanctions on export flows from Russia.
Tasks. The authors collect the necessary data and carry out modeling using modern analysis methods to obtain a complete picture of the effects of sanctions on Russia, including a quantitative assessment of these effects.
Methods. The modeling is based on network analysis, which was selected after consulting a wide range of scientific works and examining possible alternative methodological approaches to the problem under consideration.
Results. The authors successfully complete network modeling for the major export commodity groups of the Russian Federation: aluminum, gas, and oil (including crude oil); formulate and test the hypothesis of Russia’s changing role in international trade as a result of sanctions; summarize the results of the model calculations of the aggregate effects of sanctions pressure on the export of the major commodity groups from Russia.
Conclusion. In general, sanctions pressure has an obvious negative impact on the Russian economy, but the timeframe and scope of this impact are not up to the original estimates of the US and the European countries that introduced these sanctions.
Keywords
aluminum,
gas,
oil,
assessment,
model,
consequences,
sanctions,
network analysis,
centrality,
economy,
export,
effect
About the Authors
A. V. Altukhov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Aleksey V. Altukhov – Graduate Student
Leninskie gory 1, Bld. 46, Moscow, 119991
V. A. Bannikova
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Viktoriya A. Bannikova – Expert
Vernadskogo Ave 76, Moscow, 119454
E. O. Matveev
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (The Presidential Academy, RANEPA)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Evgeniy O. Matveev – Research Assistant
Vernadskogo Ave 84, Moscow, 119571
S. A. Tishchenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey A. Tishchenko – Candidate of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Economic Informatics
Leninskie gory 1, Bld. 46, Moscow, 119991
References
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Review
For citations:
Altukhov A.V., Bannikova V.A., Matveev E.O., Tishchenko S.A. Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Economy Sectors Using Network Modeling. Economics and Management. 2020;26(3):306-314. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2020-3-306-314
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