International Experience in the Risk Management of Investment Projects in the Field of Multi-Family Housing Using the Monte Carlo Method and the Oracle Crystal Ball Application for Microsoft Excel

The presented study substantiates the practicability of risk management using the Oracle Crystal Ball software. Aim. Through the example of investment projects in the field of multi-family housing, the study aims to demonstrate that the Oracle Crystal Ball application makes management of market risks quick and easy, which leads to more relevant project results. Tasks. The authors design an investment project in the field of multi-family housing using Oracle Crystal Ball and prove the efficiency of this program in considering the market risks of an investment project; they also analyze the design of the investment project with consideration of market risks using the Monte Carlo method in comparison with static calculations using the discounted cash flow method. Methods. The theoretical basis of this study includes works of Russian and foreign scientists on the problems of using the Monte Carlo method for considering market risks in the design of investment projects and studies dedicated to the use of the Oracle Crystal Ball software. The authors use such scientific methods of cognition as analysis and the systems approach. An investment project in the construction field is designed using Oracle Crystal Ball. Economic press, analytical reports, and documents published in official digital media comprise the informational basis of the study. Results. The main results of the study are as follows: an investment project in the field of multi-family housing is designed using the Oracle Crystal Ball software, showing that this software can be used easily and efficiently and that considering market risks in the design of an investment project makes the results more relevant. The novelty and practical significance of this study consist in its substantiation of the efficiency of the Oracle Crystal Ball program for the design of investment projects in the field of construction in Russia. The results of the study can be used when making managerial decisions in the field of investment project design. Conclusions. The presented study shows that the Oracle Crystal Ball software allows for fast and simple risk management using the Monte Carlo method. The use of Oracle Crystal Ball in the design of an investment project in the field of multi-family housing makes the results more relevant by determining their probability.

Monte Carlo method, simulation, Oracle Crystal Ball, risk management, метод Монте-Карло, моделирование, риск-менеджмент

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