Substance and Long-Term Effects of Import Substitution

Abstract

Aim. The presented study seeks to identify the substance of import substitution and determines its potential directions and effects on a nation. Tasks. The author examines the existing approaches to the interpretation of the self-sufficiency policy at a national level, explores its economic substance, reviews import substitution practices, and determines the potential long-term effects of the implemented policy in Russia. Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, retrospective analysis of economic indicators, comparison, synthesis, and monographic method. Results. The author examines the existing approaches to the assessment of the import substitution policy and identifies the economic substance of the policy; according to which import substitution is a phase in the different states of open and closed economies. The author also reviews the experience of industrialization policy implementation in various countries and determines the potential long-term effects of import substitution. Conclusion. The study proposes a classification of strategy toward import substitution policy based on the differences in the following multiplicative effects. The historical experience of Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the USSR shows a trend of 30-year abrupt acceleration of economic growth in the countries where import substitution was concurrent with industrialization.