Import Substitution: Finding a Basis for Economic Growth in Russia

Abstract

The presented study determines economic indicators for building an import substitution model necessary for examining existing economic and political trends in Russia. Aim. The study aims to propose basic import substitution indicators that are important for the analysis of national economic growth. Tasks. The authors examine the existing approaches to modeling of national economic growth; develop economic indicators that can be used in building an import substitution model; analyze the dynamics of the major results of economic activity in Russia in 2010-2015; assess the development of the economic situation in the country. Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition such as comparison, analysis, synthesis, and the monographic method. A balancing method with certain features of the Keynesian approach isused in composing equations and inequalities in government’s profit and expenditure. Results. Basic economic indicators of import substitution are proposed, namely: the share of domestic production increase in national income, the share of import change in the national income, and the difference between these two indicators. Calculation of the proposed indicators shows that the year 2015 was a period of crisis in Russia characterized by a decline in domestic production and consumption. At the same time, the economy prioritizes the continuously growing share of export and domestic investment, which is a sign of a belttightening policy - deferred consumption. Conclusion. The steps taken towards describing the mechanism of economic growth through import substitution provide a theoretical basis for departing from the currently implemented extensive resource-based model of national economic development. Considering the existing energy supply reserves and the global situation, the demand for such studies will only increase in the coming decades.