State support for the Russian leasing market in the context of sanctions, 2022–2025

Aim. The work aimed to develop proposals for improving state support for the Russian leasing market in the context of sanctions pressure.

Objectives. The work seeks to study the regulatory framework to identify existing state support measures for leasing; to analyze statistical data for 2022–2025 to assess the market conditions; to substantiate the need for state support for the industry’s development; and to identify systemic limitations to the existing measures effectiveness.

Methods. The study employed systems and statistical analysis methods. The authors examined the legal and regulatory framework governing the state support for leasing. The official statistics and leasing company reports were used to analyze the key market indicators for 2022–2025, such as the leasing portfolio size, the number of contracts concluded, and the share of leasing in the gross domestic product (GDP), which enabled to assess the market dynamics and identify structural issues.

Results. We identified systemic limitations to the effectiveness of current government support measures, including administrative barriers, high market concentration, and structural maladjustments. By 2025, the leasing market transitioned from recovery growth to stagnation, represented by a decline in GDP share of leasing and a decline in the number of new contracts. The value of the leasing portfolio increased primarily due to the period of high key interest rates, rather than the actual expansion of lessors’ operating activities.

Conclusions. We proposed government support measures as ways to overcome these obstacles, namely introducing a differentiated system of industry-specific “subsidy corridors,” developing a government guarantee mechanism, and creating an ESG leasing support program. Particular attention in the implementation of these measures should be paid to small and medium-sized businesses which access to leasing remains critically hindered. This negatively impacts the economic diversification and support for domestic producers.

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