Scenarios for the development of cross-border business in the field of generative artificial intelligence

Aim. The work aimed to identify the specific features of cross-border business development in the field of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and develop recommendations for the formation of promising strategies for Russian companies and the Government of the Russian Federation (RF).

Objectives. The work seeks to identify the characteristic features of cross-border business and conduct a foresight session on its development prospects in the field of generative AI; to assess the main development trends of international business in the field of generative AI; to determine the specific features of Russian business development in the field of generative AI; to propose conceptual directions for a strategy to support cross-border business in the field of generative AI in Russia.

Methods. The research methods include socioeconomic foresight using the “Four Worlds” technique, an expert survey, a literature review, conceptual and statistical analysis, and data extrapolation.

Results. The work presents a scientific definition of cross-border business in the field of generative AI and characterizes organizational models for businesses using generative AI, commonly used in the modern context. The reasons for the steady transnationalization of generative AI business are substantiated, and its characteristics are highlighted. Approaches to and challenges in assessing the economic prospects for the development of international generative AI business are examined in detail, and the results of a foresight session on cross-border business development in generative AI are presented. The work revealed the potential of cross-border generative AI business originating in Russia, and identified the barriers to its development and opportunities for overcoming them, which are traced in the intensification of strategic interaction between the state and business.

Conclusions. The most probable scenario for the development of cross-border online business in the field of generative AI is a combination of technological integration and competition among major players. For Russian companies and the Russian government, the key challenge in this regard is overcoming external obstacles and creating conditions for integrating own technologies into global value chains.

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