Determining the Trajectory of Regional Development

Abstract

This study intends to assess the feasibility of predicting the socio-economic status of certain regions based on identified trends in its development. Aim. This study aims to assess the feasibility of predicting the socio-economic situation in a region based on a system of aggregated parameters. Tasks. The study determines systemic prerequisites for the emergence of inertia in the region’s socio-economic system as well as organizational prerequisites for the efficient monitoring and prediction of the region’s state. Methods. General scientific methods are used. The focus is on collection of empirical data and similar practices in the Republic of Karelia and other Russian regions. Results. A system of parameters for the efficient monitoring of regional development is determined based on established monitoring practices. The system includes a set of factors that determine (describe) the development of the economic and social spheres of the regions. Conclusion. The inertia of the socio-economic system allows for objective, efficient monitoring based on the proposed parameters and indicators. Aggregated parameters determined by experts are used with the aim of monitoring trends. A social contract in a region is crucial for efficient monitoring as it makes it possible to engage the expert community and general public in the management process.