International experience in forecasting socio-economic development: Possibilities of application in Russian practical activities

Aim. The work aimed to determine, based on the analysis of international experience, the aspects (methods of organizing the system, techniques and tools) relevant for improving the forecasting system of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation (RF).

Objectives. The work seeks to analyze the experience of socio-economic forecasting in the USA, Canada, Germany, France, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and a number of other countries; to identify the features of the North American, Asian and European forecasting systems; to determine the aspects (measures, mechanisms and tools) of international experience, applicable to forecasting the socio-economic development in Russia at the regional level.

Methods. A number of methods were used in the study, including deduction and induction, comparative and cause-and-effect analysis, synthesis of a number of sources, including state and regional strategies, regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation, the European Union (EU), the USA, Canada, Japan, China, and a number of other countries, as well as generalization, specification, and graphical interpretation.

Results. An analysis of international experience in socio-economic forecasting systems has revealed key practices that can be applied to improve the efficiency of the Russian forecasting system. These practices include the creation of special bodies (in the public administration system) with tasks of coordination and methodological support of forecasting and planning processes at various levels; systematic modernization and updating of methodological documents on forecasting; inclusion in the forecasting and planning process of events for high-quality and large-scale public discussion of forecast and strategic documents; ensuring the consistency of forecast documents developed for different periods; development of commercial forecasting and cooperation between federal and regional authorities, which are subjects of forecasting socio-economic development, and university innovation and analytical centers. Further research in this field can be aimed at developing recommendations for adapting international experience to Russian conditions.

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