Agent-based Model for Monitoring and Management of Large Projects

Aim. This study aims to substantiate the necessity of using an agent-based model (ABM) during the implementation of large projects, which would enable an assessment of the consequences of unscrupulous performance of duties on the part of project participants. Tasks. This study analyzes both the efficiency of the agent-based approach in simulating socioeconomic processes and step-by-step simulation of ABM processes, as well as identifies the basic features of agent types. Methods. The research is based on the developed model of a general balance of the Russian socioeconomic system ( CGE -model). This study is a logical extension of research based on the application of an agent-based approach to simulations, which involves shifting the focus from the macro level to the level of independent economic actors, i.e., agents. Results. This study shows the application of an agent-based approach to the simulation of large project implementation processes, where companies involved in the project and their employees are independent actors (agents) capable of active action according to their preferences. For instance, human agents in the model can change jobs and/or places of residence and company agents can develop partnerships for performing certain stages of work on the simulated projects. Human agents contribute to the performance of company agents according to their labor potential but can also act unscrupulously and so can company agents, if managed by such employee agents. Thus, the model simulates the behavior of agents engaged in illegal financial transactions. As a result, some portion of the funds allocated for the work is not involved in production and the project’s goals are not achieved. The probability of such agent behavior depends on the general level of decency, which is a controlled parameter of the model. The model also simulates population dynamics.

агент-ориентированное моделирование, мониторинг реализации больших проектов, незаконные финансовые операции, трудовой потенциал, прогнозирование численности и структуры населения, agent-based modeling, monitoring of the implementation of large projects, illegal financial transactions, labor potential, population forecasts, and structures

1. Работа выполнена при финансовой поддержке Российского гуманитарного научного фонда (грант № 15-02-00276 «Разработка агент-ориентированной модели системы государственного управления в России»)

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