The comparative analysis of economic and mathematical approaches to the assessment of state regional policy: Advantages and limitations

Aim. The work aimed to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the models used in Russian and international practice to assess the effects of implementing state regional policy.

Objectives. The work seeks to analyze Russian and international practice of applying economic and mathematical approaches to assessing the effects of implementing state policy (econometric models, input-output balance models, computable general equilibrium models), as well as to identify the specifics and limitations of these approaches.

Methods. The study employed general scientific methods (classification and comparative analysis) to obtain the scientific provisions formulated in the article.

Results. The basic economic and mathematical models used to assess the effects of implementing state regional policy are econometric models (systems of simultaneous equations and models of cause-and-effect relationships), input-output balance models, and computable general equilibrium models. Simultaneous equation systems are used to construct an interval forecast of endogenous variables of the model based on known or assumed values of exogenous variables characterizing the economic policy implemented. Econometric models of cause-and-effect relationships enable to identify and justify the effects of economic decisions on the model endogenous variables. In the input-output balance models, the estimates of effects are mainly associated with the production field; they are calculated for gross output and added value. Such models are easily reproduced, but are limited by the mathematical specification of the economy production structure. The advantages of computable general equilibrium models include a high level of detailed elaboration of the economic system, the ability to calculate effects for various institutional sectors and spatial objects.

Conclusions. Computable general equilibrium models are the most informative for analyzing structural changes in the regional economy when implementing public policy measures. In this regard, the authors recommend the development and use of models of this class in the formation of financial and economic justification and assessment of the consequences of the developed and implemented measures of state regional policy.

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