Income level as a differentiating factor in assessing the impact of migration on economic growth

Aim. To study the nature of the impact of migration on economic growth depending on the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the direction of migration flows.

Objectives. Study of theoretical approaches to the research of the impact of labor migration on economic growth; analysis of factors that differentiate the assessment of the impact of migration flows on economic growth indicators; collection and analysis of statistical information for the development of econometric models for assessing the impact of migration on economic growth.

Methods. The authors used general scientific methods of research, such as deduction, analysis, synthesis. Statistical methods of data analysis were applied, linear regression models were built.

Results. The research shows that the impact of migration on economic growth in countries with different levels of GDP per capita is due to different factors. For developed economies, the positive factors of the impact of immigration on economic growth are replenishment of scarce labor resources; improvement of labor force quality due to structural changes caused by the transition of the permanent working-age population to new professional fields. For countries with a low level of GDP per capita we can identify a number of positive factors of the impact of emigration (with a negative balance of migration growth) on economic growth. In particular, the outflow of excess labor force creates conditions for reducing unemployment; remittances of migrants support effective demand in the consumer market, contribute to the development of the banking system and investment in the country of origin; the expansion of social ties leads to the development of human capital, increasing the potential for innovation.

Conclusions. The value of correlation coefficients in the constructed regression models indicates that there is a weak correlation between the variable characterizing the volume and nature of migration in the country (the ratio of migration balance to population) and the variable characterizing economic growth (GDP per capita at purchasing power parity) only for the group of high-income countries. There is little statistical dependence of these variables for other groups of countries. With regard to econometric modeling of the impact of migration on economic growth, this means that it is necessary to develop separate models for each group of countries depending on the level of GDP per capita and the direction of migration flows.

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