Migration as a factor of stability of regional economic systems: Spline analysis of structural changes in connectivity

Aim. To study the features of migration, considered as a factor of stability of regional economic systems, using the toolkit of spline analysis.

Objectives. To describe the impact of migration on regional development; to study the factors and trends of migration by new econometric methods realized on the basis of spline functions; to investigate the evolution of the dependence of migration flows in the context of event components of economic dynamics.

Methods. Both general scientific methods (comparative, retrospective, macroeconomic analysis) and special methods of econometric, economic-statistical and spline modeling were used in the research.

Results. The demographic situation in most regions of the Russian Federation (RF) in recent years is characterized by negative natural population growth. On average in Russia, the coefficient of natural population growth in 2021 amounted to –7.1 ppm. Population growth in the specified year also remains negative in our country –4 ppm. Migration growth plays an important role in achieving positive population dynamics in the Russian regions. It becomes relevant to search for factors and analyze trends in migration population growth in the regions of the Russian Federation. The main factors of population migration in the modern world are socioeconomic in nature. The article defines the indicator of tension in the labor market, i.e. the number of unemployed for each vacancy, as the most significant factor of migration population growth in Russia and its regions. The influence of migration on regional development is investigated, and its peculiarities as a factor of stability of regional economic systems are studied using spline analysis tools.

Conclusions. In the analysis of the impact of tension in the labor market on the trends of migratory population growth it is proposed to take into account the variability of the closeness of the relationship in the conditions of changing socio-economic conjuncture. To study the factors and trends of migration population growth a fundamentally new method — modeling of dynamics by spline functions — is proposed. The constructed spline models of the dynamics of tension in the labor market and migration growth are transformed into growth rate (trend) models by differentiation. The method of spline analysis applied in the study allowed us to assess the consistent changes in the correlation between the trends of migration growth and tension in the labor market. The use of scientific and methodological apparatus of spline modeling in relation to migration processes and the state of labor markets of certain territories, including taking into account new data characterizing regional social, demographic and economic dynamics at the end of 2022, is shown as a direction for further research.

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