Managing the risks of negative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes and prospects for the development of the Russian economy

Aim. The presented study aims to identify problems and ways to overcome the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic processes and prospects for the development of the Russian economy with allowance for the impact of various global risks.

Tasks. The authors identify the major problems and barriers hindering the implementation of measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and related to its impact on socio-economic processes; document new risks caused by the wave-like nature of the pandemic; investigate the mechanism of the multiplicative destabilizing impact of global risks; determine key methods and tools of preventive risk management to reduce the negative impact of global risks.

Methods. This study uses the methods of risk management, forecasting, systems and comparative analysis of retrospective and current information, scientific generalization, and comparison of statistics.

Results. The authors provide estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various sectors of the economy and the social sphere. Circular risk structures are identified, which generate chains of positive feedbacks that negatively affect socio-economic processes. New risks generated by the wave-like nature of the pandemic are documented. Financial instruments aimed at attracting additional funds to combat the pandemic are proposed. The reasons for the negative development of the epidemiological situation in Russia and around the world in the fall of 2021 are determined. The mechanism of multiplicative influence of various global risks on economic processes and the social sphere is determined and investigated. Factors preventing the neutralization of the negative impact of global risks and the major methods and tools of preventive risk management that could reduce the negative impact of global risks are identified.

Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a catalyst for shifting processes in the economy and the social sphere. The processes initiated by the pandemic are enhanced by the multiplicative effect of other global threats, particularly threats to climate and energy security. The impact of the pandemic on economic sectors varies: by generating high risks for some industries, the pandemic gives chances for the development of others – for example, for the wider dissemination of modern information technologies and means of remote communication. The impact of the pandemic on socio-economic processes is wave-like, which causes new risks and requires the implementation of problem-oriented preventive risk management methods and financing tools proposed in this study.

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