On Building a Model for the Efficient Development of the Oil and Gas Industry

Aim. The presented study aims to build a model for the efficient development of the oil and gas industry in the long term.
Tasks. The authors investigate the peculiarities of the development of the oil and gas industry in the Russian Federation at the present stage when the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on the reduction of oil production and global demand for oil and petroleum products; identify strategic directions for the development of the oil and gas industry in Russia and substantiate the need for government measures to support the oil and gas industry, including the possibility of forming innovative investment resources and reducing the tax burden in combination with a global shift away from fossil fuels, which will ensure more efficient use of oil and gas reserves.
Methods. This study uses the theory and methodology of strategizing developed by academician V.L. Kvint as a basis for determining strategic directions and priorities for the development of the oil and gas industry. An economic and mathematical regression model for predicting the volume of oil production in the Russian Federation over the next five years is developed with allowance for the priorities of the methodology under consideration.
Results. Substantiation of the projected values of oil production increases the preparedness of Russian oil companies and the government, allowing them to respond to various scenarios in the future and thus making it possible to develop an efficient strategy based on preventive measures to reduce the impact of oil price volatility on the Russian economy. Calculations show that Russia will most likely not be able to fully realize its production potential. In the long term, oil production will naturally decline due to the depletion of the resource base. One of the prerequisites for the successful operation of oil and gas enterprises is their orientation towards an innovative strategy in the context of sustainable development.
Conclusions. The era of cheap oil and unexpected profits from hydrocarbons is gradually coming to an end. Therefore, strategically important directions for the oil and gas industry include the modernization of technologies and equipment by attracting investments in oil and gas enterprises and the development of the industry’s infrastructure, diversification of the refining industry, reduction of crude oil exports, and increased exports of finished petroleum products.

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