Industrial production as a factor in the dynamics of trade in mechanical engineering products between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in 2022–2024

Aim. The work aimed to assess the impact of industrial production in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) on the dynamics of trade in mechanical engineering products between these countries and the Russian Federation (RF) in the context of the latest geopolitical conditions.
Objectives. The work seeks to analyze statistical data on the dynamics of trade relations between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the field of mechanical engineering at the current stage; to construct econometric models for regression analysis of the impact of industrial production on the dynamics of trade in mechanical engineering products; to determine the main trends in trade interaction between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the mechanical engineering sector in 2022–2024.
Methods. The study employed research methods, namely statistical and econometric analysis, syntax, description, graphical modeling.
Results. The econometric analysis provided reliable coefficients of regression models; however their values were small. This indicates that the impact of industrial production in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the key indicators of trade in engineering products between these countries and Russia was ambiguous and unclear.
Conclusions. Current geopolitical realities have determined unfavorable medium-term trends in the trade interaction between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the engineering sector. The regression models coefficients obtained as a result of econometric analysis showed a small correlation between industrial production in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the export of engineering products to Russia. It implies that the decline in industrial production in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe had little effect on the volume of engineering products exported by them to Russia.

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