A model of regional distribution of labor migrant numbers

Aim. To develop a model of regional distribution of the number of labor migrants that estimates determinant regional disparities factors.

Objectives. To study theoretical approaches to the study of regional distribution of the number of labor migrants; to analyze the factors of regional disproportions of the Russian labor market in modeling migration flows; to collect and analyze statistical information to develop a model of regional distribution of the number of labor migrants that assesses determinant regional disproportions factors.

Methods. General scientific methods of research such as deduction, analysis, synthesis were used. Statistical methods of data analysis were applied, linear regression model was built.

Results. The stable trends of natural population decline, population aging, leading to an outstripping reduction in the number of able-bodied population of the Russian Federation (RF), indicate the need for replacement migration. Regional differentiation in the labor market, characteristic of the Russian economy, can be balanced by both internal migration and external migration flows. However, effective replacement migration is associated with the presence of certain conditions and also carries risks. Such conditions include economic attractiveness of the Russian labor market for foreign workers, integration potential of the host community (absence of anti-migrant attitudes or discriminatory practices). At the same time, replacement migration carries the risks of negative changes in the structure of the labor force due to the relatively low qualifications of migrant workers, weakening incentives to innovate and maintaining a low level of labor productivity, transfer of money received by migrants as wages outside the Russian Federation.

Conclusions. As a result of the regression analysis, the position about the determinant role of regional differentiation of income distribution of the population in determining the regional distribution of the number of labor migrants was confirmed. The regression model uses the indicator of the share of labor migrants in the employed population as the dependent variable characterizing the intensity of labor migration to the region, and data on the average per capita monetary income of the population in the regions of the Russian Federation as the independent variable. The calculation of the regression coefficient indicates the presence of a weak correlation between these variables. Thus, regional disparities in the level of income affect the formation of imbalance in the placement of foreign labor force, since it is the economic factor of attractiveness of the regional labor market that forms the flows of labor migration in the regions.

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