Oil prices, return on financial assets and economic confidence in Russia, India and China
https://doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2024-7-772-780
Abstract
Aim. To study the effect of oil price on stock returns and economic sentiment in Russia, India and China from January 2000 to December 2022.
Objectives. To review publications in the context of the research topic, draw key conclusions and identify gaps and shortcomings, reflecting them in a table; to identify variables at the heart of econometric calculations; to present empirical results based on econometric models.
Methods. The study of the relationship between oil prices, stock returns and economic confidence in Russia, India and China was conducted using reliable and relevant data. The data frequency is monthly, covers the period from January 2000 to December 2022 and includes oil prices, stock market indices and economic confidence indices. The authors applied the econometric models MSIAH(3)-VARX(3) and MSIA(3)-VARX(3).
Results. Oil prices have a significant impact on stock returns as well as economic sentiment in the three countries under study. It is found that for China and India, oil prices affect economic sentiment as well as market returns, but for Russia, the above factors are influenced by different regimes, thus demonstrating that Russia is among the leading oil exporting countries.
Conclusions. The results obtained in the paper are useful for investors and policy makers as they demonstrate the existence of regime-dependent effects and suggest that this information is important when designing economic policies or investment plans. The paper emphasizes the importance of oil price in determining economic and financial conditions in key emerging markets.
About the Authors
S. Ray
International Institute of Management Studies
India
Competing Interests:
India
Samrat Ray - D.Sc., Professor, Dean and Head of International Relations
Nere Dattawadi, Hinjewadi IT Park, Pune 411033
Competing Interests:
The authors declare no conflict of interest related to the publication of this article.
A. Yu. Rumyantseva
St. Petersburg University of Management Technologies and Economics
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Anna Yu. Rumyantseva - PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor at the Department of International Finance and Accounting, Vice-Rector for Science and International Affairs
44A Lermontovskiy Ave., St. Petersburg 190020
Competing Interests:
The authors declare no conflict of interest related to the publication of this article.
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Review
For citations:
Ray S., Rumyantseva A.Yu. Oil prices, return on financial assets and economic confidence in Russia, India and China. Economics and Management. 2024;30(7):772-780. https://doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2024-7-772-780
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