Acceleration of diversification of foreign trade relations of Central-Eastern European countries in crisis periods and the role of Russia in this process

Abstract

Aim. To show the acceleration of diversification of trade relations diversification of Central­Eastern European (CEE) countries in crisis periods (2009-2012, 2017-2023) and to determine the importance of Russia in this process.

Objectives. To analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of trade of CEE countries with some regions of the world, including China and Russia.

Methods. The authors applied such research methods as statistical analysis, generalization, description and graphical modeling.

Results. The results of the analysis show that as the foreign trade potential of the European Union (EU) closed market is exhausted, CEE countries are forced to diversify their trade rela­tions, expanding them towards other regions of the world.

Conclusions. The diversification process intensifies in times of crisis, when conditions for regular cooperation within the EU deteriorate due to the economic downturn. This can be traced back to the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and is happening now (2022-2024), in the context of geopolitical tensions. Along with the decreasing share of the EU in the CEE countries' trade turnover, their trade interaction with other regions, mainly with Asia, is ex­panding. Among the countries targeted by the CEE diversification vector, one can single out China with the largest volume of mutual trade and Russia, whose importance has sharply de­clined in recent years due to the harsh sanctions imposed against it.