emjumeЭкономика и управлениеEconomics and Management1998-16273033-7984СПбУТУиЭemjume-477Research ArticleМОДЕРНИЗАЦИЯ ЭКОНОМИКИ РЕГИОНОВMODERNIZATION OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMICSЭкспортно-ориентированный путь роста фармацевтической промышленности Армении с 2018 по 2020 гExport-Oriented Growth Path for the Pharmaceutical Industry in Armenia from 2018 to 2020ДохолянСергей ВладимировичDokholyanSergey V.noemail@neicon.ruМакарянАнна РузвельтовнаMakaryanAnna R.noemail@neicon.ruДагестанский научный центр Российской академии наукInstitute of Social and Economic Research Dagestan Scientific Center (Makhachkala), Russian Academy of SciencesИнститут экономики им. М. Котаняна Национальной Академии Наук Республики АрменияInstitute of Economics named after M. Kotanyan of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia2018010820190102132Copyright © Дохолян С.В., Макарян А.Р., 20192019Дохолян С.В., Макарян А.Р.Dokholyan S.V., Makaryan A.R.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://emjume.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/477

В исследовании рассматриваются актуальные вопросы развития фармацевтической промышленности в Армении. Цель. Выявить экспортно-ориентированный путь роста фармацевтической отрасли (в том числе фармацевтической продукции) в среднесрочной перспективе, с 2018 по 2020 г. Задачи. Провести анализ состояния фармацевтического рынка в Армении, обосновать возможность перехода и/или создания производства компаний в Армении как платформу для выхода на рынки Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) и Ближнего Востока. Методология. Исследование построено на основе общий научных методов познания, включая аналитический, методологический и элементы прогнозирования. С помощью аналитического метода исследования, прогнозов в разрезе поиска стратегий различных фармацевтических ТНК и статистических данных экспорта армянских фармацевтических продуктов и динамики роста отрасли на период 2010-2016 гг., опубликованных Национальной статистической службой Армении, UN Comtrade Statistics и других источников, был выявлен экспортно-ориентированный путь роста армянской фармацевтической отрасли. Результаты. Армения пытается привлечь компании (включая ТНК) или инвесторов (включая инвесторов и инвестиции, связанные с диаспорой) как из ЕАЭС, так и из других регионов, которые хотели бы проникнуть на рынки Евразийского экономического союза и Ближнего Востока и/или Северной Африки, иранский рынок, а также некоторые азиатские рынки. Местные производители станут более агрессивными, так как будут производить продукцию в соответствии со стандартами GxP и начнут выходить на новые рынки, сохраняя свое присутствие на существующих, стараясь увеличить свою долю, перейдя на производство более дорогостоящих дженериков и выведя их на существующий и новые рынки. Экспорт вакцин (для ветеринарной медицины) останется одной из ведущих статей экспорта отрасли. Создавая стратегические альянсы, армянские производители будут пытаться участвовать в открытых тендерах в России на региональном уровне, стараясь получить некоторые из них. Правительство Армении могло бы начать оказывать местным компаниям помощь в привлечении внешних подрядчиков и стать КПО для фармацевтических ТНК. Экспорт фармацевтической продукции в 2020 г. может быть увеличен как минимум вдвое и составить около 35-40 млн долл. Выводы. После периода относительно низкого роста сектора аутсорсинга Запада, который начал репатриацию производства с Востока, и в сочетании с инфляционным ростом расходов Армения имеет шансы стать платформой для тех компаний, которые хотели бы рассмот реть возможность перехода и/или создания производства в Армении, таким образом проникая на рынки Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) и Ближнего Востока и/или североафриканских рынков, и/или быть ориентированными на производство активных фармацевтических ингредиентов в среднесрочной перспективе. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы Министерством экономического развития и инвестиций Республики Армения и Business Armenia.

The presented study examines the relevant problems of development of the pharmaceutical industry in Armenia. Aim. The study aims to determine a path for export-oriented growth of the pharmaceutical industry (including pharmaceutical products) in the medium term from 2018 to 2020. Tasks. The authors analyze the current state of the pharmaceutical market in Armenia and substantiate the feasibility of transition and/or creation of production companies in Armenia asa platform for entering the markets of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Middle East. Methods. This study uses general scientific methods of cognition, including analytical and methodological approaches and elements of forecasting. The export-oriented growth path for the Armenian pharmaceutical industry is determined using the analytical research method, forecasts in the context of searching for strategies of various TNCs, statistical data on the export of Armenian pharmaceutical products, and the dynamics of industrial growth in 2010-2016 published by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, UN Comtrade Statistics, and other sources. Results. Armenia is trying to attract companies (including TNCs) or investors (including the diaspora-related investors and investments) from the EAEU and other regions that would wantto enter the markets of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Middle East and/or North Africa, Iran, and some Asian countries. Local manufacturers are going to become more aggressive, since they will start producing in accordance with GxP standards and entering new markets while maintaining their presence in the existingones, trying to increase their share by producing more expensive generics and introducing them to the existing and new markets. Export of vaccines (for veterinary medicine) will remain one of the industry’s leading exports. By creating strategic alliances, Armenian manufacturers will participate in regional public tenders in Russia, trying to win some of them. The Armenian government could start supporting local companies through outsourcing and becoming a CMOs for pharmaceutical TNCs. By 2020, export of pharmaceutical products could be at least doubled and achieve $35-40 million. Conclusion. After a period of rather slow growth of the Western outsourcing sector, which has initiated repatriation of production from the East, and combined with the inflationary rise in expenditures, Armenia now has a chance to become a platform for companies that are willing to explore the possibility of transitioning and/ or establishing production in Armenia, thus penetrating the markets of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Middle East and/or North Africa, and/or being oriented towards the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients in the medium term. The obtained results can be used by the Ministry of Economic Development and Investments of the Republic of Armenia and Business Armenia.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.